2 Problems - Harris w/ Black Men & Trump in North Carolina
Janet Jackson, Bachman Turner Overdrive, Prince, and R.E.M
There are a ton of #1 Rules of Politics.
At this stage of the race - every October here in Virginia - I tell folks to follow this #1 Rule
Follow candidates and ad spends versus following the polls.
It’s easy, fun, and sometimes soothing to see a poll you like and share it with Like Mindeds saying, “See! We’re going to win X state!”
Remember the recent University of Mary Washington came out with a poll saying Kamala Harris was beating Donald Trump by just one point 47-46?
That was a fun day of answering calls and texts.
My reply was “Do you see the candidates? NO. Virginia is not happening."
Now, if Joe Biden hadn't been yanked off the ticket…
Campaign polling is the most important polling because that is the basis for decisions on where to spend time and money - the two most valuable commodities in elections.
For all you Election Nerds nerdling around here in Election Nerd Disneyland (a.k.a Virginia), I suggest you load up on Real Clear Politics averaging of polls and a personal favorite Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin for predictive modeling.
Silver’s recent? It’s basically tied:
This race is super close but clearly Harris has lost momentum in the last couple of weeks.
The big political story lately is the weakening support for Kamala Harris among Black men.
It’s real.
Axios article on black men trending toward GOP
Between the lines: Some Black men saw Obama's remarks as a lecture — and Nina Turner, a former state senator in Ohio, says that underscores how they're often (and historically) scrutinized unfairly for not being a monolithic voting bloc.
"Democrats have this mentality that they own the Black vote, and that's part of the problem," Turner said. "Black men, especially, are starting to question that ownership and ask what's really being delivered in return for their loyalty."
Take it away, Janet Jackson:
The middle of the first page on the Kamala Harris for President website:
It’s real.
That’s one reason why Hillary! lost the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia turnout losses loomed huge in that outcome.
Watch the ads and messaging in the Blue Wall states as well as candidate visits down the stretch.
If Harris is spending more time behind the Blue Wall of WI/MI/PA versus spending time in the Red Wall of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, then she’s in real trouble.
The same holds true but in reverse for Donald Trump.
That’s the game - Blue Wall vs Red Wall. Reductive politics at its finest.
Here is the link to Trump’s planned events: CLICK HERE
My takeaway? Trump’s got a real problem in North Carolina.
Join Tuesday’s Noon Zoom to discuss the State of the Race with 2021 Pollster of the Year Amanda Iovino:
Click here to REGISTER - Tuesday. Noon.
Who has an EVEN BIGGER long term problem?
The American news media.
Trust is falling through the floor for that crew. Lord have mercy.
ABC and CBS sure didn’t help the sector this cycle with their biased debate moderating and, shall we say, creative editing.
Looking for a pretty good unbiased cable news station? Try News Nation.
I only monitor Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN to follow their headlines and propaganda.
Last Friday I moderated a congressional debate hosted by the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce in VA 2 between Incumbent Jen Kiggans and challenger Missy Cotter Smasal :