2020 Election Updates - Jiminy Hootie!
America's election results point to the future.
As my wife so eloquently says, “Jiminy Hootie!”
It’s a blend of “Don’t do that!”, “Why did you do that?”, “Daggone it”, “What the eph!”, and “Bless your heart.” (She confirmed the recipe)
Michele will occasionally go for gold and drop the f bomb, but usually restrains her language.
Myself and our four kids are less restrained as we almost always go for the gold.
But looking over some of the 2020 election data, all I could come up with is “Jiminy Hootie!” It’s a magical blend.
So… Here. We. Go.
Virginia’s turnout has been updated and we are now over 2008’s record. 74.4% is the new standard. Commonwealth, take a bow you earned it.
Donald Trump’s 2020 performance in Virginia has also been updated and it looks like the President went down slightly from 44.43 in 2016 to 44.03. Previously, we had reported a tie between 2016 and 2020. Democratic Party of Virginia, also take a bow. The Commonwealth wasn’t in play, but DPV wasn't complacent. Top notch political organization that is probably under appreciated by electeds and the base. They have no idea how good they have it.
Virginia’s political peer states are now Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, Illinois, and Colorado. The big question going forward is whether or not that will eventually impact economic competitiveness where the Commonwealth’s peers currently are North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, and Arizona among others according to Site Selection Magazine’s recent rankings. #NoOverLap
U.S. Senator Mark Warner, once again, out polled all candidates by receiving 55.95% of the vote over Biden’s 54.06%. Back in 2008, Warner finished with 65% of the vote over former Governor Jim Gilmore’s 33.7% when Barack Obama won here with 52%. However, in the last election of the Obama presidency (2014), Warner barely beat Ed Gillespie 49.15 to 48.34. That shows clearly the dramatic swings that national politics have over a state like Virginia and why the Republicans could be competitive here in 2021 and 2022. 2008 - Obama 53-46 over John McCain. The very next year? In 2009, Bob McDonnell (R) won 58.6% to Creigh Deeds(D) 41.3% or a 24 point swing. #ObamaCare
That swing will be likely reflected in the Georgia Senate Runoffs, but probably not that dramatic. The Georgia Secretary of State just ordered a hand recount which could put Senator David Perdue over the 50% threshold and avoid a runoff. The Libertarian in that race got 2.3, but don’t make the mistake thinking those are all Republican votes. Libertarians tell me they take votes 2 to 1 from Democrats. They also will be much less likely to vote in the runoff(s).
Trump won Florida by roughly 3.5 points. Increasing the Minimum Wage to $15 an hour by 2026 won with 61% support. That means that well over 1 million Trump voters supported increasing the MW.
Biden won California 64-33; however, as William Galston reports in his WSJ column, California voters rejected “tax increases on commercial and industrial property…allowing 17 year olds to vote in primaries…replacing cash bail…reinstating affirmative action…expanding local rent control…” and requiring Uber and Lyft drivers from being treated other than they are as independent contractors.
However, in the same column, Galston outlines that Californians supported “criminal justice reforms and strongly favored allowing former felons to regain their right to vote.” Florida voters did that in 2018. Oh, and Mississippians overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana.
Looking ahead to the 2021 primaries in Virginia. The national results again show that America is in a political realignment as one generation, the Baby Boomers, had off the reigns of power to Gen X. That said, Virginia’s Democrats are still much more moderate than most either know, acknowledge, or wish. Biden/Bloomberg voters outpolled the Sanders/Warren crowd here by 63-34 on Super Tuesday back in March.
Virginia Democrats piled up 1.2 million primary vote on Super Tuesday. Joe Biden won a majority in a five way race with almost 706k votes. In just the eight most populous localities, Biden rolled up 365k votes himself compared to the three Virginia Republicans who only managed 309k votes in their U.S. Senate primary for the entire state in June.
Jiminy Hootie! That’s a LOT of information. America is changing. These are historic times.
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Chris
p.s. - Apologies for the mistake in yesterday’s headline. I didn’t catch that I typed in 2024 when it should have been 2020 in the title and first paragraph. It’s probably due to the fact that 2024 will be a much more important election than 2020. As such, I have 2024 on the brain. Thanks to those who gently pointed out my mistake. Feel free to push back on anything you read here. Cheers!