2022 Midterms - Team Blue on Defense.
The Who, David Toscano, Natural Gas Prices, and the great John Mauldin.
We are 32 days out from Election Day and there is a lot at stake!
Join the our weekly conversation today at 3pm on Virginia FREE Fridays to discuss ALL the latest polls and SCOOP - got lots of scoop this week.
But first! Buy the new book by David Toscano “Bellwether - Virginia’s Political Transformation 2006-20200. Toscano served in the House of Delegates representing Charlottesville and Albemarle County and became House Minority Leader serving in that capacity from 2011-2018. What you may not know is that Toscano ran for Congress - as an Independent in 1982! Click on the link above to see how he fared.
And we’re back…
On Tuesday, I posed this question to an online group of students from over half a dozen states, “What’s the goal in an election?”
Came the correct answer via quote from former Oakland/LA/now Las Vegas owner Al Davis:
That’s what they all come down to - winning.
Yes, I know you know that; HOWEVER, at this stage of the race many folks default back to betting with their hearts vs. following the data. The #1 data point? Now?
Follow the money.
Here’s an example - Is the New York governor race really in play? Well, Trafalgar released a poll that has Governor Kathy Hochul leading Congressman Lee Zeldin by just 2 points. New York? Wait…Trafalgar is a Republican pollster you say. Okay.
Here’s how 538 rates the polling companies:
Fox News is more Democratic that Trafalgar is Republican? Wait…what?
You decide.
BUT is the money going to NY and will it arrive in time to push Zeldin over the top?
That’s what you should look out for - not the excitement of an upset but rather is the GOP betting real money on that race and if so - how much and where? Upstate? Long Island? It all matters.
You’re going to hear a LOT about various races, but the battleground is clearly Democrats defending their turf. Defense is exhausting and expensive. Just ask Putin.
The GOP could pick up governorships in Nevada, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Oregon, while the Democrats are looking to pick up Massachusetts and Maryland. Pretty wild that Kansas, Oregon, Massachusetts, and Maryland are being discussed for switching parties. #AllPoliticsIsLocal #CandidateQualityMatters.
Real Clear Politics currently projects a net pick of 2 for Republican Governors.
Oh and Oregon is real.
Here’s the U.S. Senate battleground - bold went for Joe Biden in 2020 - Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But do you see Washington state? How do you know it is real or not? IF the GOP starts pumping in money then it’s real. Republicans think Tiffany Smiley is a great candidate against incumbent Patty Murray. Smiley’s campaign told me this morning that gas prices are a big deal in The Evergreen State.
Here are House battleground districts - 26 Democratic seats are rated Toss Ups while 8 are Republican.
That’s a LOT of Team Blue on defense.
Defense is harder when certain issues are difficult to…well…defend. Gasoline prices up nationally almost 30 cents in the last three weeks. Charts are the last month of gas and crude oil prices. #OPECSaidNo #SayItAin’tSo #Joe? #GotFistBump?
Now, look at Natural Gas prices over the last ten years. They are up over 100% since Election Day 2020 according to this chart from Trading Economics:
Luckily for incumbents these have not hit electric bills - yet.
How about a double GIF/meme hit from the great newsletter by John Mauldin that shows a real economic storm potentially on the horizon:
In a month, the American people will give voice to the direction in which they want to country to go and I'm betting that direction will change. Because as Bruce Mehlman’s latest super duper slide deck shows, the one constant in American politics - is change:
Another reason to pick up Toscano’s book on political change! But check out one of his favorite political songs by The Who - We Won’t Get Fooled Again
Peter Townshend, apparently a self identified neo-con, said this about the song in Financial Times back in 2006 (Toscano's book start date)
The song was meant to let politicians and revolutionaries alike know that what lay in the centre of my life was not for sale, and could not be co-opted into any obvious cause
Bet that hasn’t changed for Peter.