Affordability or Gerrymandering?

Ronald Reagan, Rogue One, and Billy Joel

In politics, it’s rarely the first punch thrown that devastates, it’s almost always the counter punch.

In his re-election campaign of 1984, President Ronald Reagan was getting hammered for his performance in the first presidential debate on October 7 against former Vice President Walter Mondale.

Even though he was well ahead in the polls, Reagan’s age became an issue as a result of that debate. He was all of 73 at the time - the oldest president ever. For context, Joe Biden is 83 and Donald Trump is 79.

Polls showed Mondale had won that first debate 54%-35% and narrowed his national polling deficit to just 7 points.

Four days later, Vice President George H.W. Bush debated Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro to a tie - a great outcome for Democrats. In fact, Ferraro was able to gain momentum with women voters when she accused Bush of “patronizing” her on foreign policy.

Momentum was building

Then on October 21st in the second debate, Reagan was asked, in front of the entire nation, directly about the concerns over his age. The moderator, Henry Trewhitt of the Baltimore Sun, even framed the question that Reagan’s own staff said he was “tired after his most recent encounter with Mr. Mondale.”

Trewhitt then went further putting in the context of being ready to deal with a possible nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union - a central issue of the time.

While ahead, Reagan was clearly on the ropes getting pummeled and at absolutely the wrong time.

Then he delivered what is considered to be the most devastating line and counter punch in American political history:

“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Game over

In fact, when asked later about this moment, Mondale knew at the time - during the debate - that he was going to lose. Reagan would win by over 18 points - 58.77 to 40.56.

Reagan won every state except for Mondale’s home state of Minnesota and he only lost that by 3,700 votes.

Fast forward to 2025

Virginia Democrats ran up huge numbers led by now Governor Abigail Spanberger who defeated former Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by an astonishing 15+ points.

The House Democrats gained 13 seats and now will have a 64-36 majority - a dramatic switch from the House Republican majority of 66 seats just 8 years ago.

Momentum can change so quickly.

The central theme of Spanberger’s campaign was affordability. That was also the running theme of every Democratic campaign last year. From Zohran Mamdani’s stunning mayoral victory in New York City to Mikie Sherrill’s campaign for governor of New Jersey - it was ALL about affordability.

Pocket book issues. The Democrats won everything last year.

The year before?

The 2024 presidential election came down to Immigration and Inflation.

Trump closed the Border, but now his lead on immigration has turned negative due to that all-too-common trait of political winners - Over Reach.

They went too far, too fast. Off narrative. No one likes a bully or being bullied.

You’ve seen the headlines, videos ad nauseam, (LORD help us) the cancer that is American Social Media and probably in your own texting groups, right?

It’s everywhere all the time.

Momentum lost.

Where am I going with all this, you ask?

Well, the Democrats won big here in Virginia on affordability and they have now given the Republicans the chance to help flip the script not just here in the Commonwealth, but also the nation.

Today on 3rd (final) Reading in the Senate is House Bill 1384.

This bill - which will pass on a party line vote - will fund the upcoming special election probably on April 21st that returns Virginia to gerrymandered congressional districts for the 2026 midterms. Super fun. (Early voting starts in early March BTW)

Okay. So what? We know that’s coming.

Well, in Virginia this is what’s known as a seven day bill.

Governor Spanberger has to act on this bill within seven days.

Okay. So what?

Well, it will be the very first bill that Governor Spanberger will have to act on. It will be NOT be what she ran on but rather what her party is pushing. And pushing hard.

Spanberger hasn’t been all that enthusiastic about the re-gerrymandering push from the jump. Apart from being off narrative - centrist/bipartisan/pragmatic/restraint - she also just won 8 out of the 11 congressional districts - on AFFORDABILITY.

She completely out performed (work, fund raising, organization) her opponent and now the narrative is about to flip on her less than 90 days from her victory night.

When this narrative cracks, and barring a veto - it will, the GOP will rightly pile on with every other bill that has nothing to do with affordability.

Talk about affordable - the Republican outrage machine will be full of FREE and true examples from tax raises to new entitlements to increasing legislator pay.

Boom. Counter punch.

Voter turnout problem solved.

The two main political parties in the States United are wildly unpopular these days because they share something in common with each other.

Neither party does what they say they were going to do.

THE problem isn’t affordability or immigration or taxes or Greenland or climate change or abortion or guns or even… the national debt. <cue gasp>

Nope.

Dear friends, the issue that threatens us all is trust.

Erosion from within.

They said Affordability and Inflation, NOT Gerrymandering and rounding up innocents.

The first step in rebuilding trust is to trust the collective wisdom of the people. Then trust the process of American government - it’s a good one.

It will come back to you ten fold. Trust me on that.

*

While watching Rogue One last night, during a break, I got an earful when Michele mentioned grocery prices from her earlier run to the store- trust me- my girl was not happy!

I remain hopeful - it’s my contrarian, rebellious nature.

It’s also all that some of us have left - hope.

A Matter of Trust

Lyrics:

Some love is just a lie of the heart

The cold remains of what began with a passionate start

And they may not want it to end

But it will, it’s just a question of when

I’ve lived long enough to have learned

The closer you get to the fire, the more you get burned

But that won’t happen to us

‘Cause it’s always been a matter of trust

Now, I know you’re an emotional girl

It took a lot for you to not lose your faith in this world

But I can’t offer you proof

But you’re gonna face a moment of truth

It’s hard when you’re always afraid

You just recover when another belief is betrayed

So break my heart, if you must

It’s a matter of trust

You can’t go the distance

With too much resistance

I know you have doubts