Are Dads shifting to Dems? Spanberger/Vega poll - Term Limits coming? Inflation still #1 issue.
Riverdance x 2, Summertime - Drums PLEASE, and yes Michele's Daily.
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Election Nerd Disneyland full on alert!
This post from Common Sense got my attention this morning:
→ Republicans are taking hits in polls: One group swinging to the Dems? Dads, apparently. A Fox News poll shows a big shift from America’s dads. In May, congressional Republicans had the dad advantage: 53 percent versus 33 percent. By August, dads had swung by 28 points! Now, here’s the dad breakdown: 44 for the Dems and 36 percent for the Republicans.
28 points since May? Among dads?
Naturally, I had to get some verification on these numbers since whenever there is a poll that is counter narrative, folks will say it’s fake. One should find some back up, right?
Well, this is holding up so far, but it’s good to figure out why. Was it the Dobbs decision? The 1/6 Committee hearings? Gas prices easing off? Maybe. It wasn’t the FBI raid on Mar A Lago since the poll was conducted the Monday morning (8/8) of the Fox August 6-9 weekend poll.
If you look at the cross tabs of the poll the GOP leads among dads in the areas of Inflation (51-44), Crime (54-40), and Border (53-42). Democrats lead Dads on Abortion, (58-35), Climate Change (60-33), with Guns, Opioids, and Democracy at or just below 50%.
2. The Fox poll also has suburban women breaking to Democrats on Dobbs 62-36
BUT the #1 issue is still inflation.
So the battle for the midterms will likely be on which issue do independents break - Inflation or Abortion. Here is an article suggesting that it is proximity to the risk of losing abortion rights that is driving intensity.
3. Here is another nerdling stat post Dobbs from Kansas: voter registrations were 64% women vs. 52% this same time for the 2018 mid terms.
BUT whereas in 2018 women in Kansas were registering 42% Democrats, 29% Republican, and 28% Unaffiliated/Independent, this year it is 48% Unaffiliated/Independent, 30% Democrat, and just 19% Republican.
Do with those as you wish…
4. Speaking of polling and women, let’s take a look at a recently released poll on the 7th Congressional District race here in Virginia which features incumbent Abigail Spanberger and challenger Yesli Vega.
The poll was conducted by an organization that supports Term Limits. It shows Spanberger up 46-41 and Joe Biden under water badly on Strongly Approve/Strongly Disapprove 30-45. BUT…
Down 5 to up 10 based on one issue? I was no math major, but one might see Vega endorse a term limits pledge - and soon. Voting starts in 35 days.
5. Ever wonder what it will take for folks to put together that too much social media is just not healthy:
6. According to NBC poll call the Student Poll : 46% of all students surveyed experienced Depression in the last year and 67% experienced Anxiety. Best treatments for depression according to WebMD? In this order: Routine - Goals - Exercise - Healthy Diet - Sleep. All of which are interrupted by Social Media.
Given the possible significant negative heath impact of social media, it won’t be long before public policy begins to regulate its use. If not public policy, look for insurance companies to try to raise rates to reflect the claims being filed.
Stein’s Law - “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
7. GO OUTSIDE AND PLAY is good advice for everyone, not just kids.
Speaking of kids…
8. COVID had a brutal impact on student learning.
Another piece of good advice I should follow more? Turn my phone over and pick up a book.
9. Excellent article from Dwayne Yancey over at Cardinal News:
Will climate bill lead to more mining in Virginia? Four of the five “critical minerals” for electric vehicle batteries have been mined in the state in the past. Will their economics now change? #RuralEconomicGROWTH?
I think he meant to say Inflation Reduction Act not climate bill. We’ll let it slide this time. After all, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office thinks the bill will reduce inflation by ALMOST 0.15 over the next five years. Crack a cold one, fellas!
10. And just a little bit of trivia that feeds some narratives about just who is generous among the States United. (Wait staff already know this)
Personal side of the post:
Last week, I shared a story about meeting a German CEO and his family in lower Manhattan. His family correctly noted and laughed that my surname, Saxman, is the Anglicized version of Sachsmann. In 1649, 16 year old Christian Sachsmann left Baden-Wurttemberg for Rotterdam, boarded a ship bound for Philadelphia, and eventually settled in Western PA. They laughed when I told them I was now more than 50% Irish and that our children have a LOT of Polish due to Michele’s Jerozinski lineage. #Gdansk. #JP2 #Solidarnosc!
All of which is a round about way for me to point out that no matter where we come from being American is neither geographic nor demographic. America is an idea born out of the greatest revolution in human history. There are many reasons why people come (YES STILL) to America, but ultimately it’s about freedom.
To that end, here’s a Riverdance video celebrating some Irish heritage:
And Lift The Wings - the story of leaving told by those who didn’t. It was the Father Daughter dance at Mary Kathryn’s wedding. #DamnOnions. #LooLa
On another happy note, William moves home this weekend to join his new bride, Chelsea. They’ll bunk with us for awhile waiting for housing prices to come down. #2030
Should be a fun weekend with Mary Kathryn and her Marine SGT husband, and the recently returned from NYC, John the youngest. #YardWORK!!
And here’s Momma Michele’s Daily Devotional - many of y’all thanked me for posting one last week, so…
(yes, this is her ALL the time…)
Y’all have a great weekend - get outside and have FUN.
Drums please!