Biden v. MAGA, Gas Prices, Yield Curve Inverts, Dems lessening losses, Youngkin/DeSantis building brands? Mitch Daniels - tan, rested, and ready.
Curtis Mayfield, Buffalo Springfield, and ladies and gentlemen...the Rolling Stones.
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Let’s cut to the quick here - Democrats have had a very good summer politically.
They have improved their standing with the base in passing progressive legislation, the Dobbs decision has intensified their enthusiasm, and Democrats have managed to keep Donald Trump centered in the mid term conversation. Falling gas prices certainly have taken the edge off voter antipathy as well.
Last night, President Joe Biden offered to the nation a Thursday before Labor Day primetime speech aimed directly at winning back male independent suburban midterm voters and Democratic presidential primary voters. Donald Trump MAGA Republicans were just his targeted foils. FYI - Wall St. Journal poll has Biden leading Trump by 6 (50-44):
Smart politics. I’m good, they’re scary - now decide. Click here for the transcript. Female independents were already moving to the Democrats. #Dobbs #Alito
This morning, I read the speech because watching Biden speak is, for me, like drilling a live tooth - best avoided if possible. Remind me to tell you about the time I refused novocaine before filling two cavities. I know the analogy and it works. #HeyIWas13
MAGA/Trump baiting aside, it was a fine, anodyne speech with the usual platitudes and recitation of his Administration’s accomplishments. Let’s be honest there are many recent wins. #That’sPolitics
But that speech was pitched and delivered as a shot at Trump and his supporters to differentiate and agitate. He wants Trump to respond.
Let’s not mistake Joe Biden for a transformational or even good leader. #JustAskBarack
If he were really concerned about democracy and political violence and people accepting the outcomes of elections, Biden would have also called out his own. That would have helped make is case that democracy (shh…it’s a republic) is truly under assault from extremism. After all, he needs his extremists to show up and vote, too.
Like our politics, extremism is binary and every time the Left goes at the Right for their bad actors, the Right says, rightly, “what about the 2020 riots?”, “what about Hillary Clinton’s servers?”, “what about Hillary’s refusal to accept the 2016 election?”
Which gets the response, “That’s just What Aboutism!” Reminder - the next Democrat to call out Hillary will be the first one.
Nicene Creed has the process of begetting. One leads to another. Sort of like political broken windows. #JustNotMyTeam #NextNomination
People who cry out What Aboutism! are not offering a defense, but rather a diversion. Clearly, they never had to sit in the back seat with siblings where finger pointing is WhatAboutism 101 and 102.
That’s why I watched the more watchable Backyard Brawl between Pitt and West Virginia to open the college football season in which the referees are paid to call the game fairly. #MediaBiasFeedsExtremism
Lacking a competing narrative from Republicans, the Democrats have some wind at their backs as we turn into the Labor Day weekend. The biggest break they have gotten, after the Dobbs decision, is the drop off in gas prices which peaked in the middle of June:
Falling demand has brought down prices and now even OPEC+ is considering production cuts. Yes, cuts. CNBC report this week:
Oil prices settled up more than 4% on Monday, extending last week’s gain, as potential OPEC+ output cuts and conflict in Libya helped to offset a strong U.S. dollar and a dire outlook for U.S. growth.
Just last month, President Biden went to Saudi Arabia to ask for production increases. #LeaderOfTheFreeWorld
Let’s look at when Biden’s numbers started to improve:
Third week in July around the 21st-22nd or a full month before the “Inflation Reduction Act” was signed. I use “ ..” for that bill because it will have almost zero impact on inflation per the CBO.
The Right Track Wrong Track peaked around July 4th weekend right after gas prices began to drop:
So, is everything based solely on gas prices? No, of course not; however, when they are increasing on a daily basis they become a daily negative conversation and trend. If they are going down on a daily basis, as they have been until most recently, they are less of a conversation/trend and other issues can work their way in. #PolicyBuffet
If you look at the chart above, the Right Track/Wrong Track began to go negative long before the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and it follows the consistent rise in gas prices dating back to Q2 2021.
It’s not rocket science, it’s daily math. Independent voters who really don’t like to talk or think about politics/government were very agitated by inflation and gas prices. When they are confronted with rising prices taking more and more from their discretionary spending, they have less freedom and less control over their lives.
For now, Democrats are experiencing a shift in the political winds and trying to make the midterms a referendum on Donald Trump is just smart politics. Will it be enough to hold the House and the Senate in November? We’ll see, but it will lessen the losses.
That’s echoed in the recent Real Clear Politics National Generic Ballot (NGB).
Look at the stark contrast between Registered Voters RVs (+2.6) for Democrats vs. Likely Voters LVs (+4) for Republicans. #Enthusiasm
Did I mention 2024 earlier? Yes. Here is a nice visual on the future of the GOP in which Governor Glenn Youngkin is building a brand on winning Blue states (and Nebraska) and Gov. Ron DeSantis building his brand on winning presidential swing states.
Both governors had better be dusting off their economic growth bona fides as next year this time the nation could be talking about a deeper recession than the current mild one.
Best signal of a recession is the inverted yields of 2 and 10 year USTs.
This is not a good look:
Here is the market getting way ahead of government policy makers on wage floors. PLEASE COME BACK TO WORK!
Speaking of governors with presidential supporters, former Indiana Governor and Purdue University President Mitch Daniels takes the federal student loan program to task in this Wall St. Journal column today:
When, not if, our national debt forces a traumatic reckoning, asset sales will likely be part of the emergency plan to preserve safety-net payments and some vestige of discretionary government. Along with surplus federal land and structures, it will make sense to sell whatever remains of the student-loan portfolio. That will be a fitting end to a bankrupt lending system born of bankrupt policy choices.
Has it really been a dozen years since the federal government took over the student loan program? My how time flies.
It’s also been ten years since Purdue raised tuition and fees. The Boilermakers have also lowered “room, board, and book fees.”
People get ready…change is coming…
There's something happening here/ What it is ain't exactly clear:
And why not…need some Rolling Stones live!