Biden v. Trump II - Virginia is in play
Gov. Youngkin's numbers indicate potential as VP selection
Big F’ing Deal - the map and math to 270 Electoral Votes has changed
A new poll broke late yesterday indicating that the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump will becoming to Virginia this summer and fall.
First off with nearly 100% name ID Biden and Trump are at 43-42 with 14% UNDECIDED?
#YEESH
Why is that a big deal? Virginia had been written off as a swing state by most handicappers because of the 2020 results:
A ten point win is a LOT and Trump’s 44% was a slight underperformance from his 44.43% vs. Hillary! Clinton.
Actually, Biden’s campaign has known this for some time and has been to Virginia several times already. He showed up in Prince William County on April 20th to tout solar investments on Earth Day. Look who he dragged with him - The How to Govern Without Calculators Caucus.
That’s AOC, Bernie, and Sen. Ed Markey (MA).
See any Virginia Democrats?
NOPE.
Is that Virginia poll is REAL?
YUP.
Let’s dive into it.
First of all it was conducted by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines and they want to stop the expansion of gambling here in the Commonwealth.
There has been an Inside Capitol Square well funded battle on the issue of putting slot machines or skill games into local convenient stores.
Is the poll legit? Here’s the methodology:
Horrible News for Biden
First demographic to look at is the education split between college graduate vs. not college graduate:
Horrible for Biden.
Virginia’s College + should be around 43, not 49.
Trump’s Numbers in Virginia
47% approve of the job Trump did as President but only 42% are supporting him. That’s a problem for Trump since his ceiling looks to be 44.43%
The #1 Trump Problem in Virginia?
35% of PRIMARY VOTERS said, “No, thank you.”
Bottom line - follow the money.
If Democratic ad dollars and staffing flow to Virginia, Trump is in great position to win and run up the score in the Senate.
This poll indicates a YUGE financial shift will be coming for Trump and he needed it bigly.
Virginia U.S. Senate Race
Notice how low Senator Tim Kaine’s disapproval numbers are:
A new to Virginia conservative who is deep in the policy world asked me why Tim Kaine is so popular.
Kaine doesn’t go around picking fights and pissing people off and this is what many Republicans will say about him, “I disagree with him but he’s okay for a Democrat…” which has been the sweet spot for Virginia Democrats for an entire generation.
Lesson? Nice goes a long way in politics. So does competent. Kaine has never left an audience thinking anything but, “he knows his stuff…”
Being Not Unpopular helps. A lot.
As a result, Kaine is in good position to win and only has to have Undecideds break 2 to 14 to push him over the top.
Governor Glenn Youngkin with solid numbers that increase his likelihood to be considered for Trump’s VP:
Stay tuned to the Commonwealth !