Biden's debt plan v WAPO, WSJ, and Obama's Chair of CEA, but his numbers and chances in '24 improve. Tea Party Part Two?
Yield Curve inverts, gas prices improve, and a GOP Top Ten for 2024.
This week’sVirginia FREE Friday will be moving to Monday at 3pm.
Michele and I will be on Amtrak at 3pm today heading to the Marine Corps Parade tonight at the 8th and I Barracks in DC. Amtrak has made great progress lately and we look forward to their WiFi improvements in the hopefully near future. $13 one way Richmond Staples Mill to Alexandria! Cheaper than hotel parking folks.
Oorah.
The big news of the week was President Biden’s announcement that he was cancelling a lot of student higher education debt. #IsItLegal?
Here are three non judicial branch reactions to the Biden plan
The Washington Post Ed Board: (full editorial here)
The loan-forgiveness decision is even worse. Widely canceling student loan debt is regressive. It takes money from the broader tax base, mostly made up of workers who did not go to college, to subsidize the education debt of people with valuable degrees. Though Mr. Biden’s plan includes an income cap, the threshold does not reflect need or earnings potential, meaning white-collar professionals with high future salaries stand to benefit.
and
Mr. Biden’s student loan decision will not do enough to help the most vulnerable Americans. It will, however, provide a windfall for those who don’t need it — with American taxpayers footing the bill.
2. President Obama’s Chairman of Council Economic Advisors:
3. Wall St. Journal Ed Board: (Full editorial here)
Worse than the cost is the moral hazard and awful precedent this sets. Those who will pay for this write-off are the tens of millions of Americans who didn’t go to college, or repaid their debt, or skimped and saved to pay for college, or chose lower-cost schools to avoid a debt trap. This is a college graduate bailout paid for by plumbers and FedEx drivers.
When you’ve lost WAPO, WSJ, and Obama’s Chair of the CEA…
Can you imagine the reactions of governors and state legislatures? #HigherEdFunding #TheyDon’tVoteForUs
Speaking of moral hazards…who can forget CNBC’s Rick Santelli epic February 2009 rant from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on the subprime mortgage bailouts:
Don’t recall that rant?
It launched the Tea Party movement which was the likely precursor to national populist movements across the country and globe. That eventually culminated, in America, as the MAGA/Drain the Swamp movement with the election of Donald Trump.
In poll after poll, cross tabs have shown that the global political realignment is economic, not ideological. Often times in America, our culture, and the resulting behavior of the two political parties, has been defined by the classic Haves vs. Have Nots.
Today, the Haves have a college degree and better lifetime earnings while the Have Nots have not a college degree and have not higher lifetime earnings. The resulting Have economic mobility, or Have Not, has created hollowed out rural economies bereft of talent which flees, or already fled decades ago, to sprinklered suburban lawns or urban centers of consolidated capital.
The division is not only economic but deeply emotional for those left behind. #Resentment
And when those Have Nots are hectored at by the cultural coastal elites, they will get behind anyone or anything who will fight for them. If you don’t get that then you cannot comprehend why so many fervently support Donald Trump. It ain’t about Trump. In the end, we do things for ourselves.
Or as J.D., our drywall dust covered contractor with “it wasn’t for me” one semester of college under his belt , so succinctly put Biden’s plan, “I think it’s bullshit.”
J.D. (26) has a Don’t Tread on Me license plate and no knowledge of the aforementioned Tea Party movement. But he did share with me from his smartphone a Facebook post that noted how college loans are being forgiven but contractor loans are not all while he is working…in his words, “to get by.”
Speaking of smartphones…look at the growth since 2009.
From a raw political perspective, however, this move greatly improves the renomination chances of Joe Biden for his party in 2024. He has given the left/progressive flank of his party a Christmas Wish List of policy victories lately and that simply cannot be ignored.
Nor can his recent improvement in the polls be ignored. Biden a month ago was net -20.3 and today is -12.7. Look at the relation of gas price driven consumer sentiment to Biden’s numbers. #LeadingIndicator
It ain’t rocket science.
Sure, we’re in a recession but so far it’s relatively mild. Even if the economy gets worse (which is distinctly possible) and, given the very recent Yield Curve Inversion, that looks more likely than not. The Yield Curve almost always forecasts a recession and this inversion came after the current recession began back in Q1.
Even if we go into a deeper recession, it more than likely won’t last beyond 2023. That sets up an early 2024 narrative for Team Biden to claim his economic policies are working. #BidenComeback
And what has been the primary selling feature/narrative of Team Trump v Biden? Trump’s economic policies were working.
Given Trump’s continual obsession to re-litigate the election of 2020, the race for 2024 would be Advantage Biden. Reminder - Biden beat Trump by 8 million votes in 2020 with a significant shift of suburban Having College degrees white men swinging away from the incumbent president.
The recent headline grabbing actions by the Democrats have been very smart politics. From the 1/6 Committee to legislative victories to raids on Mar A Lago to trips to Taiwan and now this week’s college debt plan, the things not being reported on are Inflation, Recession, and Back to School.
The SCOTUS decision on Dobbs was clearly the official kickoff to the midterm media narratives, but the Democrats continue to pound the rock and move the chains on other issues. #FootballIsBack
Who knows? Maybe the GOP will figure out a narrative vs relying on Biden’s numbers to win back the House and Senate. #TickTock
This summer underscores just how good of a campaign Glenn Youngkin and his team ran last year in Virginia. They had issues to run on like the grocery tax cut and cost of living LONG before education became the closing argument AFTER early voting had already started. Back in May 2021, I called him a potential unicorn candidate for Virginia Republicans and given his discipline, focus, and funding, Youngkin could be the same for Republicans nationally. #It’sEarly
The Washington Post this week also teased out a Top Ten list of GOP Presidential aspirants going 1) Gov. Ron DeSantis 2) Trump 3) Pence 4) Sen. Tim Scott (SC) 5) Gov. Glenn Youngkin 6) Sen. Ted Cruz 7) fmr Gov. Nikki Haley 8) Sen. Rick Scott (FL) 9) Mike Pompeo and 10) Donald Trump Jr.
For now it’s a two man race (DeSantis v Trump) for POTUS nomination as long as Trump is running. That, of course, will change as events warrant. First off the leaderboard will likely be Haley, Pompeo, Rick Scott, and Pence. Top VPOTUS picks - for now -are in alphabetical order Haley, Tim Scott, and Youngkin.
Currently reading - The Bedford Boys - One American Town's Ultimate D-day Sacrifice. HIGHLY RECOMMEND.
Speaking of 2009 and American greatness, here’s British commentator/critic Christopher Hitchens on the subject:
And the aforementioned Marine parade from two weeks ago.
Oorah indeed.