BIG Night of Virginia Elections! What to watch and Winners/Losers

It’s Election Day.

Again.

STOP!

Political cynics and skeptics, step aside!

This is what Virginia does.

We are the crucible of democracy and the great American bellwether.

The stakes of this Election Day could not be higher.

GOOD.

Almost 90% of the General Assembly will be elected today in newly drawn Can’t Win/Can’t Lose Districts. (h/t Jeff Ryer)

Today is the General Election for those districts.

Much like Congress, the real tension in American politics is in the nominations. As such, the electoral calendar has dramatically shifted and is misaligned with the governing calendar. More on that later…

Let’s set tonight’s table with some basic charts:

By 3 to 1 Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction.

Biden and Trump favorables are basically at 40 and they both are, remarkably, leading their party’s nominations. However, note the much better favorable ratings of the next generation of political leaders.

Gas prices, while not great, are stable.

The pandemic was officially declared over 40 days ago. Some people still drive alone in their car with a mask on, but some people also put ketchup on eggs.

While it would be interesting to run down all of the district races and forecast who will win, the larger trends are far more interesting to watch as those will show the direction of not just Virginia, but the country as a whole.

Here’s what I am looking at today:

1. Democratic Senate races in Northern Virginia - will the Center/Left Hold?

2. Republican branding in the House and Senate - will Controversy be rewarded or will Normalcy return? How MAGA is the GOP?

3. Democratic nominations between men and women - will Post Dobbs Democratic nominations favor women in open seats?

4. The strength of Governor Glenn Youngkin within the Virginia GOP - so far, GGY has been a real difference maker in Republican nominations.

5. Republican women - will they show strength in hotly contested nominations?

6. Policy trends - other than Post Dobbs abortion policy among Democrats, is there a discernible policy fight going on?

7. Who wins the proxy battle between Dominion and Clean Virginia/MichaelBills?

8. Do Crossover voters actually show up?

9. And, of course, overall turnout #s.

   1. NOVA Dems have a BIG role today - do Senators Dave Marsden, Chap Petersen, Jeremy McPike, and George Barker return or do their female opponents win? (exception Petersen who has a male opponent) Are results mixed? What’s the breakdown in each race? Let’s toss in Senator Creigh Deeds v. Delegate Sally Hudson into this category because, let’s be honest, Charlottesville/Albemarle is Arlington South. Odds are a mixed result here - one of the men will probably lose. Small bets on McPike and Barker losing.

   2. Republicans have a real branding problem with Senator Amanda Chase and Delegate Marie March. IF they are shown the door by their constituents, that portends real problems for similarly controversial Republicans in Congress. I’ll throw Senator Joe Morrissey in with this group. Take Normalcy to win and cover the spread - I think they all lose.

   3. Democratic men v. women in open seats. I think Democratic women do well. Amy Laufer (Albemarle) and Susanna Gibson (Short Pump) in the House and Russet Perry (Loudoun) Senate seat. These candidates will help Democrats in toss up races in the fall. #DobbsFactor

   4. GGY has been very effective at helping his endorsed candidates win. I think that trend holds with Tara Durant and Emily Brewer winning their Senate nominations. GGY endorsements will be undefeated. #Bigly2024

   5. GOP women - mixed results here. Durant, Brewer win but Tina Ramirez, Amanda Chase, and Marie March lose. Toss up for the seat of retiring Senator John Cosgrove? Edge to Christie New Craig.

   6. Hard to see any policy trends emerging right now. These races have been about Name ID, raising money to improve Name ID, and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts. The nominations are Politics 101 -making people aware of the elections and out to the polls.

   7. Both Dominion and Clean Virginia have bet heavy. Results will be mixed but since CV has more challengers running, it’s a steeper climb.

   8. Crossover votes. Huge trend to watch out for as folks realize their votes can matter in nominations not of their party. Noise vs. Signal tonight, but this will grow.

   9. Turnout. Trend holds - more turnout than expected and early voting grows.

1. Tonight’s Winners:

   1. Glenn Youngkin

   2. Democratic incumbents in NOVA

   3. Women - Democrats and Republicans send more to Richmond

   4. Normalcy

2. Tonight’s Losers:

   a. Controversial candidates

   b. Younger aggressive progressives, but that won’t stop them

   c. Policy

   d. State budget deadlines

   Election Night coverage can be heard on John Fredericks Radio Show available on his website or app here:

   https://www.johnfredericksradio.com

   I’ll be live on the air with Fredericks and former Delegate Mike Watson starting at 6pm. Best election desk in America - non stop coverage all night long.

   ****

   Vacation is officially over today and I highly recommend an Alaskan cruise. Glacier Bay, like the Grand Canyon, defies adjectives. You just have to see it to believe it.

   Stopped off in Saxman, Alaska - briefly. Named for our ancestor - teacher Samuel Saxman - who died at sea in 1886 helping native tribe relocate due to smallpox. Cool gift shop. Didn’t buy one of their famous totem poles - yet.

   

   Okay, Virginia - let’s do this!

   

   P.S. and HELL NO I am not touching the Louise Lucas v. Lionell Spruill race. And neither should you.