Breaking down ALL these polls and watch the geography of gas prices.
Led Zeppelin, Elton John, Jimmy Buffett, and Alan Jackson
Virginia FREE Fridays cranks up today at 4pm EST.
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Polling
Oh look…another POLL is out…and the headline is clickbait heaven
Newsweek - Joe Biden Takes Stunning Lead Over Donald Trump in Two Polls
And ONLY 228 shopping days left until Election Day.
Now consider these other headlines:
Financial Times - US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries Washington told Kyiv that drone attacks risk driving up crude prices and provoking retaliation
Geopolitical Futures - To Plug Russia’s Fiscal Gap, Something Has to Give The Kremlin is targeting the lowest hanging fruit. Intro paragraph:
The Russian government is working on a plan to introduce a progressive taxation system in order to plug the growing budget gap. Ahead of presidential elections last weekend, Vladimir Putin said in an interview with state media that he believed both ordinary Russians and Russian businesses viewed the move with a degree of understanding. Having secured a fifth term on Sunday, Putin hopes the measure will help boost budget revenue, finance key social and military endeavors, and avoid further bloating of Russia’s external debt.
Ah yes. Raising taxes on the general public to pay for a war. That’s usually very successful. #Sarcasm101
So, let’s get real about all of these polls. While they are treasure troves of data they can also show you the path to policy decisions - which is kind of important.
One looks at poll and says “YAY! My team is winning!” or “OH NO! We’re losing!”
Campaign consultants will tell you there are two polls - good polls and shit polls.
Either it’s a good poll or it’s a shit poll meaning if you like a poll you celebrate it and push a narrative that benefits the candidate/campaign. If, however, you don’t like the results of a poll, you attack how the poll was conducted vs. what the results are.
If you go to Real Clear Politics you will find just about every public poll that has been released.
They have done a nice job of showing the various polls so you can see head to head match up polls for Donald Trump and Joe Biden. RCP then has three way polling adding in Robert F. Kennedy Jr and then five way polls with Cornel West and Jill Stein.
They also have polls broken out by Battleground States that will matter the most in the Electoral College.
Overall, it’s an excellent resource. Pasted below are the two way, three way, and five way polling.
HOWEVER - pay close attention to the difference between RV and LV in the sample. RV = Registered Voters and LV = LIKELY Voters.
Okay.
In the head to head matchup NATIONAL polling, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 2.0 points. Right?
Not if you take out the LIKELY VOTER polling.
In just the REGISTERED VOTER polling, Trump leads Biden by 0.43 points. Less than half a point.
BUT among LIKELY VOTERS in national polling Trump leads by 7.5 points.
In three way polling with RFK tossed in the average among RVs is Trump 40, Biden 37.5, and Kennedy 20.
The only LV sample has it 43-37-12.
Now in the five way sampling there is only Registered Voters being polled nationally.
Trump 41.3 to Biden 39 to Kennedy 11.2 to Cornel West 2.2 and Jill Stein (Green Party) is at 1.6
Key takeaways:
It’s early. Please no wagering at this point.
Trump is in a strong position because among those more likely to vote, he’s up and outside the margins of error (MOE)
Biden has to put back the coalition from 2020 and as such he’s making presidential decisions on Gaza, gas prices, the environment, and union jobs that reflect his electoral needs.
Biden also needs to convince RVs to become LIKELY Voters. That’s obvious.
While Trump is leading among LVs, he needs to win back lost Republican voters and eat into Democratic vote targets among a) college educated males b) non college educated females c) minorities and d) 18-29 year olds.
Additional data points to watch on the inflation front:
Gas prices and the geography of those gas prices.
Prices are up nationally:
But look at where they are up:
Remember, presidential elections are not national elections. They are state elections and local issues matter.
Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
Hope to see you at 4 on Zoom!
Story time
About a dozen years ago, I took our #3 Nora (who’s in my phone as Nora Is Awesome Like I’m Totally Not Even Kidding) to a UVA Women’s basketball game. I think it was a NIT game.
Well, we have courtside seats but under one of the baskets and right next to the UVA band.
We were having a great dad/daughter outing when the band leader stands up during a time out and says loudly to the band, “KASHMIR!” Meaning they were going to play Led Zeppelin’s classic song from 1975.
Before the band plays a note, Nora, within ear shot of the band leader, turned to me and asked, “What’s Kashmir?”
I look up at the band leader and he’s giving me the “Dude. You have not raised your child right” look and said aloud, “Really?”
The good news is that Kashmir became Nora’s pregame song and it’s now a point of connection for us.
The lesson is that sometimes the mistake you think you made can become a real asset IF you chose to make it so.
And since live Zeppelin is the best Zeppelin:
and another connection song with Nora - like I’m totally not even kidding:
I’m out in Oklahoma to celebrate a friend’s BIG Birthday.
Time to crack a cold one (right after the 4pm Zoom) !