Breaking Down the 2020 Election
Some AMAZING Numbers you have to see!
My father has a saying, “Liars figure, figures don’t lie.”
Without taking a shot at the many polling operations that got this election wrong - again - I want to share with you some fascinating numbers from the 2020 election.
Turnout - National turnout was 66.4%. That’s the highest since 1900. If the US hit a record high for the last 120 years, it’s hard to say that democracy is dying here. The fact is that democracy is vibrant and growing in America.
Virginia’s turnout was 72.8%. That was slightly above 2016 at 72.05% and below 2008’s record of 74%. Reminder - the 2009 election that in which Bob McDonnell became Governor of Virginia was down to 40%! Expect a similar drop, but not as severe. Set the Over/Under at 44.5% for now.
38,874 - that’s the number of voters had they switched their votes in the three 2016 battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (46 EVs) would have had Hillary Clinton winning the Electoral College. Trump won 306-232.
38,992 - that’s the number of voters switching their votes in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (46 EVs) this year that would have Trump in the the Electoral College lead. Joe Biden is currently at 306-232.
Massive Money 2016 - total spend 6.5 Billion. GOP had the $ advantage with 51.7%.
Massive Money 2020 - total spend 13.9 Billion. Democrats advantage at 64.6%. That is before the expected 700 million spend in the two Georgia Senate runoffs.
Biden ZERO Coattails - Republicans were +1 in Governors, +2 in state legislative chambers, +11 in House of Representatives, and so far only -1 in the U.S. Senate. Republican women now number 29 in the U.S. House. Big shift coming in GOP candidate diversity.
Maine Senator Susan Collins - Republican Collins won Maine by 9 in a state Trump lost by 8. Yes, America there are swing voters.
2021 Virginia’s Big Three and House Races - the first political battle for the soul of both parties which will culminate in 2024. Primary Day is 210 days away! Expect between 30 and 40 statewide candidates next year. Over/Under is currently 35.5.
2020 was the most disrupted year in American politics in over 50 years with a recession, pandemic, mass protests, and a Supreme Court nomination. The American people chose stable, divided government. In fact, this cycle had the fewest state legislative chamber changes since 1946.
1884 - was the last year a newly elected Democrat President did not also have a Democratic controlled Senate. Enter the Georgia runoffs. If the GOP holds the Senate, confirmation hearings for a new Biden administration (should that come to pass) will be very difficult for progressive nominees.