Countdown to the Virginia Statewide Nominations
Democrats have 110 days, the GOP? TBD. Still.
Last week, You Gov released an online poll of the Virginia gubernatorial nominations pretty much confirming what we have said all along about the Virginia statewide races this year.
For the Democrats, former Governor Terry McAuliffe is in very strong position to win the nomination when one adds up the “Voting for” and “Leaning towards” numbers.
With just 110 days left until the Democratic primary, the poll breaks down like this:
former Governor Terry McAuliffe - 43%
Undecided - 30%
State Senator Jennifer McClellan - 8%
former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy - 7%
Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax - 6%
Delegate Lee Carter 6%
While the You Gov poll is an online poll, that’s also where most of this campaign is being conducted. Given McAuliffe’s financial advantage and clear lead in the largely name ID driven poll, this is his race to lose.
The race has been relatively quiet during the endorsement phase in which all the various Democratic organizations announce their allegiances. As Democratic consultant Ben Tribbett noted on my radio show a couple of years ago, the Democratic Party is a “complex coalition” of various interests. As such, it is difficult for any one candidate to defeat Terry McAuliffe in a five way race especially when he is in the low 40s already.
Recently, Carroll Foy penned in the Washington Post an op-ed attacking Virginia's political class writ large saying in part:
Virginia has well-earned a reputation for corrupt politics.
continuing:
When the candidates who are cozy with special interests win, all too often they let the rich and powerful continue to have an outsize influence on policy, leaving everyday Virginians behind.
She linked a couple of stories about recent investigations which yielded a unanimous Supreme Court reversal of Governor Bob McDonnell’s conviction and a nothing burger on McAuliffe.
This probably explains why McAuliffe’s team didn’t take the bait and respond. That and it’s not smart to repeat another campaign’s attack message.
Still, it begged for a review of Carroll Foy’s own campaign finance reports from her well funded and successful runs for the House of Delegates in 2017 and 2019.
While everyone and everything has a “special interest” when it comes to politics, some back of the envelope math shows Carroll Foy reporting on her two House campaigns 117 donations from various corporations, lobbyists, PACs, wealthy donors and/or organizations funded by them for a total of just over $221,700. Her campaign for governor, in fact, reports over 250 separate donations of over $500, 21 donations over $10,000, and 7 donations of over $100,000.
Which reminds of another of my #1 Rules of Politics:
It’s not the punch, but rather the counter punch that devastates.
If Carroll Foy starts to gain traction on McAuliffe (which he’ll know early on based on his polling/data operations), he will no doubt make sure her ascent is quickly stifled.
This is probably not the preferred political path rising star Carroll Foy wants to trod given the likelihood of a McAuliffe nomination victory as it also gives plenty of room to run for either “business man outsider candidate” Pete Snyder or Glenn Youngkin should they win the GOP nomination.
In a much lower statewide turnout of around 43-45%, these narratives can be far more painful coming from one’s own party. It’s different when the ad or headlines read “Democrats say Terry McAuliffe did X” vs “Republicans say Terry McAuliffe did X.”
Let’s turn our attention to the Republican nomination which has neither a method nor a date set just yet. It’s likely a convention, but how many delegates will be allowed to attend in person? Will it be a drive thru? We’ve heard Ranked Choice Voting may be deployed. Who knows? That party organization is such a mess. Becoming a raging dumpster fire could be considered an upgrade.
The same YouGov poll also confirms what we have been saying all along about the GOP race namely that, yes, in fact, the junior senator from Chesterfield County, Amanda Chase, is in the lead among declared candidates. New to the discourse is the reality that Chase trails Undecided by almost 20 points. Undecided is the clear front runner and this thing is #WideOpen.
Here goes the breakdown:
Undecided - 43%
Amanda Chase - 24%
Pete Snyder - 13%
Delegate Kirk Cox - 7%
Glenn Youngkin - 5%
Merle Rutledge - 5%
While this is also largely name ID driven, Chase’s lead is a real problem for the GOP given there are so many candidates in the race to divide up an anti-Chase vote. Her chances in the general election are the worst of any of the top Republican candidates but that has never stopped voters in the past.
In addition to the above mentioned, Sergio de la Pena, Pete Doran, and state Senator Emmett Hanger have either declared their candidacies or have said they are running previously. That’s an eight-person field with one candidate in the mid 20s already.
This field will eventually winnow down to a four person race between Chase, Snyder, Cox, and Youngkin vying for either convention delegates or firehouse primary voters. A convention, depending upon the rules adopted, favors Snyder or Cox who have more established name ID and campaign organizations while a primary is likely preferred by Chase and Youngkin.
Maybe the Virginia GOP will give the public some direction in the near future as to their nomination method and date. Some have said they believe May 1st will be the convention date. Others see a possibility in which the Republicans will have their nomination determined by their State Central Committee which consists of around 75 people.
If so, that is only 72 days away for the field to organize and pass Amanda Chase for the nomination. Chase is currently hamstrung by her inability to get her message out and campaign organized due to a recent Facebook ban which will last another 50+ days, so now is the time for the challengers to step up. Cox is trying his best serving in the House which should be adjourning soon while Snyder and Youngkin are criss crossing and Zooming the Commonwealth making their case.
In the Lt. Governor races, the Democrats have a very congested field of eight contestants with not much separating - thus far - the top five of Delegate Sam Rasoul, Delegate Hala Ayala, Norfolk Councilwoman Andria McClellan, Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, and NAACP leader Sean Perryman. Anyone of these candidates has a legitimate shot at the nomination.
The biggest news from the GOP field for Lt. Governor is the entrance of former delegate Winsome Sears who is a real wild card. In a convention especially, Sears - the first female African American Republican elected to the House of Delegates in 2001 - could really shake up what had become quickly a two man race between Delegate Glenn Davis and former delegate Tim Hugo. Republican convention goers eight years ago picked E.W. Jackson thinking an African American conservative would help them win statewide. Jackson would lose to Ralph Northam by almost eleven points getting just over 44% of the vote while underperforming Republican nominee for governor, Ken Cuccinelli, by 33,000 votes.
That was considered - rightly - a blow out.
For context, Donald Trump also won 44% in both of his Virginia presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020.
In the nominations for Attorney General, Republican Delegate Jason Miyares is in the lead for the nomination while the Democrats could have a very close race on their hands between Delegate Jay Jones and incumbent Mark Herring.
It’s going to be interesting to see what Democratic voters do in the voting booth after voting for Governor and Lt. Governor. They will be going from five candidates to eight candidates to just two candidates as they go down the ballot. That is potentially a real problem for the incumbent Herring in a party that might be seeking some change. But then again, that party just ran Joe Biden as its nominee for president….and won.
Since many candidates are talking education these days, here is the most watched Ted Talk which dates back to 2006. Maybe when we get over the Open/Not Open debate we can debate about the best ways to teach all kids.