Democrats Sweep Special Elections
Democrats now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate.
The Georgia Senate run offs are finally over and the Democratic candidates narrowly defeated Republican incumbents.
Which reminded me of my #1 Rules of Politics. (there are a LOT of #1 Rules)
#1 - Challengers don’t win elections, incumbents lose them.
Democrat Jon Ossoff won 2.205 million votes to Republican David Perdue’s 2.192 million or 50.1 to 49.9
Democrat Raphael Warnock won the most votes on the night with 2.223 million to Kelly Loeffler’s 2.173 million or 50.6 to 49.4.
It’s tough to put this entirely on the incumbents since the headwinds created by Donald Trump IN GEORGIA following the November elections definitely impacted this race.
The Democratic victories now give effective control of the U.S. Senate to the Democrats with Vice-President Kamala Harris breaking tie votes.
Democrats will have one of the (if not the) slimmest congressional majorities is U.S. history.
So, both parties need to calm down. They still have to govern and that ain’t easy to do. Once again, you can thank the Framers for their foresight.
Twitter was aglow last night with its analysis. Here are some tidbits:
Democratic campaign consultant Ben Tribbett:
Republican campaign consultant who actually worked the Georgia runoffs Liz Mair:
While this was a big victory for the Democrats as well as a brutal defeat for Donald Trump and the Republicans, the Senate’s tie reflects a deeply divided nation.
Joe Biden’s nominees will be confirmed and it will go much faster than if the Republicans had controlled the Senate. Biden hedged his bets and nominated folks likely to get through the Senate if the GOP was in control. A couple wouldn't have been confirmed and now they will be. Probably.
Legislatively, Democrats still have to pass the bills and there is no room for error in the Senate and the House just barely voted Speaker Pelosi to another term.
Folks, it’s tick tight.
Since West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has said he would not vote to change the filibuster, so that is likely not to change. Unless, of course, Manchin changes his mind. But as you look to his re-election in 2024, remember he won with less than 50% in 2018.
Then there are the very vulnerable Democratic incumbent senators in the 2022 cycle which officially kicked off on November 4th.
Senators to keep an eye on:
Arizona - Mark Kelly won with 51.2%
Georgia - Raphael Warnock won last night with 50.6%
Nevada - Catherine Cortez Masto won with 47.1%
New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan won with 48%
And then relatively moderate Senators up in 2024 who will be running on the presidential cycle won with turnout generated by Donald Trump being in the White House:
Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema won with 50%
Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow won with 52.2%
Montana’s Jon Tester won with 50.3%
Nevada’s Jacky Rosen won with 50.4%
While Manchin won with just 49.6%
So while Democrats CAN do many things in the majority, it doesn’t mean that they will.
IF Virginia’s General Assembly was a legislative bellwether in 2020, Democrats now face their biggest hurdle - themselves.
And what this all might mean for Virginia in 2021?
Well, last night Democrats won the two special elections but underperformed their recent margins in HD 2 and HD 90.
Chaz Nuttycombe’s early analysis:
So, what’s the one scene that ran through my mind at 3:30 this morning? This one from my mom’s favorite movie.
Now, I need get onto the deeper analysis on what is likely to play out in the days, weeks, months, and years ahead in politics and business!
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Hey, it’s already Wednesday. The week’s almost over. Relax.
It’s not like there’s going to be a challenge of the Electoral College today at 1pm.
Cheers!