Early Reports - "freak out" - GOP turnout high and Dems lagging.

Virginia 2 - 7 - 10 will show you the national score, but it won't be early tonight. Buckle up.

Northbound on the much improved Amtrak bound for Newtown, PA - Dr. Oz HQ - where I will be on the election desk of Real America’s Voice from 6pm to 1am.

Real America is a streaming TV service available at www.americasvoice.news and on Roku, Dish 219, Pluto TV 240, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Select TV 106, and the Real America Voice app.

Election Night coverage is hosted by John Fredericks, but sadly our usual colleague, former Delegate Mike Watson, is unable to join us as he has business related matters that demand his attention. (Congrats, Mike!) #EBITDAMatters

So it will be a new crew on the desk tonight but hopefully we will gel in order to deliver the solid objective analysis that folks have come to expect from our recent election nights. We’ll see…

There are a lot of storylines to follow on this - my 30th! - election night in a row.

I would be remiss if I didn’t give a shout out regarding my favorite election night ever - 1995 -  the night Michele went into labor with #2 child William who turned 27 today!

For those of you who have followed our family, William was almost named Otis! My Man! Saxman. True story - click here.

Michele, wonderful mom of four, has joined me in Pennsylvania while William and his new bride, Chelsea, are locking down the homestead for us in Short Pump.

That ‘95 election was a very special for our family and historic for Virginia in that the Republicans took control of the Virginia Senate for the first time that night.

I try not to make election predictions in favor of just analyzing what happened, but let’s set some parameters.

Yes, there is a Red Water coming ashore the question is how high is that water going to be?

Follow these numbers as the Virginia returns come in: 2, 7, and 10. That’s the numerical order of the three bellwether Congressional district elections in Virginia. They also line up with where one can expect the water rise to be IF these three district perform well for Republicans.

VA 2 - Virginia Beach - incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria vs State Senator Jen Kiggans. If this is more than a five point win for Kiggans, the majority is lost for the Democrats and the next seat is also in jeopardy for the Democrats. That is…

VA 7 - Prince William County - incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanberger vs Yesli Vega. If this one goes to the Republican at all, the Democrats have a problem in…

VA 10 - Loudoun County - incumbent Democrat Jennifer Wexton vs Hung Cao. If this even close to going for Cao, the Red Wave will beat all expectations.

SO it’s going to be either a high tide with a few seats going or a 2 foot (+10 to 20 seats), 7 foot (+20-30+), or 10 foot (30-40 + seat) Red Wave.

Here are some early reports that I have gotten today:

New Hampshire which only votes on election day - strong GOP turnout. My source on the ground says the Bolduc should win US Senate since Hassan has dropped $50MM and has yet to poll over 50. Karoline Leavitt in NH 1 looks strong as well.

Connecticut - my source a former state legislator thinks Republicans pick up CT 5 with George Logan and 8-9 seats in the state House.

Oklahoma City where Governor Kevin Stitt is in real trouble might pull it off as turnout was reported high in key GOP precincts.

Meanwhile back in the Commonwealth of Virginia, Republicans are reporting high turnout virtually everywhere I have called - from the Shenandoah Valley to Virginia Beach to Northern Virginia precincts they need to have turnout.

GOP campaign operatives in VA 2, 7, and 10 like what they are seeing.

Now from the Democrats - they could be in full “freak out” per Ben Tribbett President of Pocket Aces Consulting:

Ben Tribbett @notlarrysabato

Now would be a good time for a freak out- turnout is not where it needs to be for Dems. Hoping to see some long lines tonight.

Now, after 30 years of watching Virginia elections - reminder we do this EVERY YEAR - a couple of things should be top of mind.

It’s early.

One usually believes what one wants to believe.

Alan Greenspan’s “Irrational exuberance” springs to mind.

You don’t get everything you want for Christmas.

Here are some new points to ponder and to tell all your fellow Election Nerds nerdling here in Election Nerd Disneyland.

This is going to be A LONG NIGHT.

Virginia returns will be slowed by Early Voting being tabulated by precinct for the first time and Virginia state law that means that counting doesn’t being until AFTER 7pm tonight.

However, we should be getting LOCALITY results first which can be extrapolated out since precinct and then district results will come after that. #ReversingTheTape

Which means that Virginia Beach will come in as Virginia Beach vs. a % of the precincts reporting and you will be able to gauge who won VA 2 - Luria or Kiggans. No idea when that happens. Maybe 8-8:30?

Don’t over analyze this election. This is a referendum on Joe Biden, the economy, and localized issues - crime or abortion in particular. I’ll have a deeper analysis tonight on the show and later this week, but…

Tune in tonight, shoot me an email or text - I’ll be around!