"Election Nerd Disneyland" Alert!

All Eyes on Virginia in 2021

Niskanen Center’s Rachel Bitecofer has a great nickname for Virginia - “Election Nerd Disneyland.”

So fitting.

That’s because Virginia has consequential elections every year and political geeks just can’t get enough of all the data our voters spit out every year. Throw in our proximity to the federal government as well as the national media and you have a constant, never ending political cycle not dissimilar to the “It’s A Small World” ride at Disney World. The damn thing never ends.

The 2022 midterms are only 102.5 weeks away and all eyes will be on Virginia to see how the political market is reacting to a likely Joe Biden presidency and a Mitch McConnell led U.S. Senate.

Yes, I know neither are determined yet, but I think most of my readers can hold more than one thought in their head at one time and still manage to get through the day without therapy or alcohol (and YES, I know in many cases that’s redundant). Focus.

Look at our cycle and break out your prayer beads.

2020 - President, U.S. House, U.S. Senate

2021 - Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and House of Delegates (redistricting will be possible, not probable yet)

2022 - U.S. House - this will happen after redistricting by the way. It is possible, leaning probable, that this is when the new House of Delegates district lines are finished and the second year in a row all 100 seats are up.

2023 - House of Delegates (yes, again) and State Senate

2024 - President, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate

2025 - Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and House of Delegates

2026 - U.S. House and U.S. Senate

As a result, Virginia has a rhythm in her political calendar. Recently, it’s something like this…

Election. Democrats celebrate, Republicans blame each other for not being sufficiently conservative, folks head to watch Virginia Tech beat Virginia, pre-filing bills for Session, fundraisers, General Assembly Session, embarrassing bills make national news, Session finally ends, more fundraisers, and then nominations. Then more fundraisers, Republicans grouse that their statewide candidates are still not sufficiently conservative but will probably show up to vote for them anyway, Democrats start planning all the uber progressive bills they will pass, final polling is done, then final allocation of campaign money, and then the votes are counted. Rinse and repeat.

UVA eventually broke their winless streak against Tech. The key was hiring a new coach and changing the team culture from losing to winning. In fact, UVA went to the Orange Bowl last year after finally beating the Hokies.

The national Democrats, many based in Northern Virginia, probably just fired their Republican antagonist in Donald Trump. Will it change the Commonwealth’s culture and rhythm? The Zen master would say, “We’ll see.”

2021 offers the Virginia GOP a once in a decade and maybe last chance to get off the schneid.

With the entire national political establishment watching, Virginia is going to be “the Political It Girl of 2021” even if the Pfizer COVID vaccine gets wide distribution. (Vaccine has short self life and must be stored very cold by the way)

Election Nerd Disneyland will factor all that data into 2022 as well.

Why? There is a lot riding on the 2021 election ahead of the 2022 midterms - namely control of Congress.

The results from last week have 24 current U.S. House Democratic incumbents and 4 current House GOP incumbents finishing at or under 52%. 52 is sort of a Mendoza Line of political vulnerability. That’s right about where polling shows candidates inside or outside the margin of error (MOE) of 4. Outside that and you are likely to get chopped from final allocation decisions. Inside the MOE and you have a strong case to make for more funding.

In the U.S. Senate, there are 34 seats up in 2022. There are ten seats at or under the 52% level last week. Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Arizona for the Democrats with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, and Alaska for the Republicans.

The first real live data trove in the new cycle will be the primaries on June 8th.

Virginia’s primary turnout numbers will be very important to watch.

GOP Turnouts and resulting % in General Elections

2016 - just under 1.1 Million - Trump won; lost general with 44.4%

2017 - 366k - Ed Gillespie won; lost general with 45% (700k turnout drop)

2018 - 304k - Corey Stewart won; lost general with 41%

2020 - 309k - Senate only - Daniel Gade won; lost general with just under 44%

What will the turnout be in a crowded GOP field of maybe 8 candidates for Governor, four for Lt. Gov, and 3 for Attorney General? 500,000 would be a solid number for the Republicans. That’s a good goal with a Biden presidency. Up to 650 would point to a very good year and north of 650 would be huge. (Reminder - the Republican Party of Virginia has yet to decide whether it will hold a convention or primary as its method of nomination)

Now let’s look at the Democrats. Please focus on the drop in primary turnout from 2008 to 2009. Yes, I am well aware that it was twelve years ago and before Trump, but last week’s turnout of 74.4% in Virginia was close to 2008’s turnout of 74%.

Big numbers and big drop off possible in 2021.

2008 - 983k - Obama won; won general with 53%

2009 - 319k - Creigh Deeds won; lost general with 41% (660k turnout drop and Republican Bob McDonnell was uncontested)

2012 - Tim Kaine and President Obama uncontested; Kaine won general with 53%, Obama 51%.

2014 - Mark Warner uncontested; won general with 49%.

2016 - 785k - Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders (64-35); won general with 49.8%.

2017 - 542k - Ralph Northam beat Tom Perriello (55-45); won general with 54% (230k+ turn out drop off. Dems beat GOP in primary turnout 542-366 or 60-40)

2018 - Tim Kaine uncontested; won general with 57%.

2020 - 1.2 Million - Super Tuesday - Biden won 53-23-11-10 over Sanders, Warren, and Bloomberg respectively; won general with 54%.

Like 2009, the Democrats will have a contested primary next year. Currently, there are four candidates announced including former Governor Terry McAuliffe who finished second in the 2009 primary.

I’m guessing with around 15 or so statewide candidates, one could expect between 600- 700k for Democratic turnout. Hard to say at this point given the likely change in federal administration.

The real first test of the national party base enthusiasm heading into the '22 midterms will be the level of Democratic Drop Off from 2020 to 2021 and the level of Republican Rise. (Yes, I went for alliteration there. You deserved it - you’re still here and yes, I think the Georgia Special Elections are…well…special. Hard to use them as a crystal ball given all the 2020 dynamics and additional $700MM projected spend there)

Virginia Statewide Turnout by Year.

2008 - 74

2009 - 40

2012 - 71

2013 - 43

2016 - 72

2017 - 47

2018 - 59.5%

2020 - 74.4

2021 - The question is Status Quo Ante 2015 or is Democratic turnout the new normal without Donald Trump?

Let me know what you think turnout will be in the comments section.

Cheers!

Chris

p.s. Please share and like so we can have a good political dialogue