Exclusive Poll! Virginia Voters pre- General Assembly Session - Biden, Trump, Youngkin, DeSantis and a whole lot more!
3 Special Elections today - One BIG Senate election and two less competitive House races.
On Friday, Virginia FREE hosted a Zoom + Slide Deck from WPA Intel’s Amanda Iovino. The recording is provided here:
Use this password: PEkj9+?e
Two slides to whet your appetite:
Three special elections today. Two are not seriously in play so watch their margins post Biden Midterms. #TrendsMatter
As always, note the impact of the national narrative which is driven by the party and person that/who occupies the White House.
Virginia is THE bellwether!
House District 24 (Valley - Rockbridge/Augusta/Lexington)- Republican Ellen Campbell, widow of Delegate Ronnie Campbell is expected to defeat incumbent Jade Harris.
2019 (Trump presidency) - Republican Ronnie Campbell won 66-33, but in 2021 (Biden presidency) won 73-27.
House District 35 (Fairfax - Tysons/Vienna/Oakton) - Democrat Holly Seibold is expected to defeat Republican Monique Baroudi to fill the term of recently retired Delegate Mark Keam who took a position in the Biden Administration.
2013 - Democrat Mark Keam won 65-35 but was uncontested in 2015, 2017, and 2019. In 2021, Keam won 69-31.
The big election of the day is the race to fill the last year of Jen Kiggans who was recently elected to Congress.
Senate District #7 - Virginia Beach and Norfolk.
In 2019 (Trump presidency), Kiggans defeated Delegate Cheryl Turpin by just 511 votes or 50.3 to 49.5. In 2015, incumbent Republican Senator Frank Wagner defeated Democrat Gary McCollum 54-46 in which over $4MM was spent. This was the last cycle of the Obama presidency.
This special will run over $2MM in just a two month election and is expected to be very close. Democratic candidate Virginia Beach City Councilman Aaron Rouse versus Republican Kevin Adams.
Complete Toss Up rating here. If I had to bet, small dollar bet on Adams given GOP won seat during Trump Administration albeit by less than one percentage point.
Not that this is anything but a get your base to show up election, BUT Biden is underwater in the in the Norfolk DMA among independents 38-54 while Governor Glenn Youngkin is above water with them at 49-28.
It’s an important election that the winning side will play up and the losing side will try to play down. But make no mistake, there is a lot riding on the 7th.
Analysis to follow…