Exclusive! Virginia Poll - Race for Governor

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May 22, 2025

Spanberger holds 4-point lead over Earle-Sears in new poll

Next year's gubernatorial field is pretty much already settled | WVTF

From the Pantheon/HarrisX poll memo:

On a two-way ballot for the Gubernatorial race in November, Spanberger leads outside the margin of error (52%-48%), and her base of support is stronger: with 31% “definitely” supporting Spanberger compared to 23% for Sears. Both candidates have their partisan bases largely consolidated, with 91% of Democrats supporting Spanberger and 92% of Republicans supporting Sears.
Independents lean toward Spanberger 53% to 47%.
Nearly a third of Black voters (32%) support Sears.

When looking at those reporting a high level of interest in the election (7-10/10), Spanberger’s lead expands to 7 points: 53%-46%. Among those who report a very high level of interest in the election (10/10), Spanberger leads 60% to 40%.
Adding a third-party candidate in the race brings the ballot within the margin of error for Spanberger and Sears. Former Congressman Denver Riggleman would earn 7% of the vote, drawing from both Sears (45%) and Spanberger (48%).