FOUR House Districts Analyzed - One Toss Up, One Pick Up, and two GOP Holds.

Marshall, Edmonds, R. Bell, Byron, Walker, Laufer, Shippee , Squire, Price, and Gibson.

Analysis of four House of Delegates districts for 2023. Why so early?

Well, 2023 is a very important election cycle with 140 new and likely permanent General Assembly districts. As a result, all the pieces are moving NOW.

For ALL the other districts previously analyzed and those yet to come click the button above and chip in some US currency like the rest of the really cool kids nerdling around in here Election Nerd Disneyland - a.k.a Virginia.

District 49

Incumbents Danny Marshall and James Edmunds

Looks like this one tips heavily to Marshall with 2/3rds of the new 49th being comprised of Marshall’s 14th.

That along with a solid lead in fundraising for Marshall, largely due to Edmunds not raising much at all (only 4 donations received in the first half of the year), indicate that the GOP is working out a lot of the potential Clash of Incumbents.

That is terrible for popcorn sales but smart politics for a party that has just regained the majority in the House of Delegates and will have to compete with the resources of the Democrats.

Heretofore, Republicans have not kept pace with Democratic national online fundraising efforts so the GOP has to get a LOT of seats off the board early.

Advantage Marshall - LIKELY GOP HOLD.

Districts 52 and 53

Incumbents Kathy Byron and Wendell Walker

Ooookay.

On paper these two incumbents are set up for an epic nomination fight for House District 52 which has a fairly solid Republican track record:

Now look at Forest just outside of HD52:

Forest is the mailing address for Del. Kathy Byron.

And wouldn’t you know it, there is an open heavily Republican 53rd House District next door that includes…Forest.

HD 53 won by Gov. Glenn Youngkin with 73%.

So, my Spidey Sense is that Del. Kathy Byron will run for the Republican nomination in the 53rd and Wendell Walker will run for the 52nd in his hometown of Lynchburg.

Byron had a solid fundraising effort in her first report with 64k raised and 148k Cash on Hand. As the Chair of the powerful Commerce and Energy, Byron will be called on to put this district away early and help raise money for the Caucus in order to fund competitive swing districts down the stretch.

Walker, on the other hand, raised just over 7k and has 10k COH.

Bruh.

If you’re playing at home on the board version of Election Nerd Disneyland, bet on both Byron and Walker returning.

House District 55

Incumbent Republican Rob Bell

Well, this is a fairly strong Democratic district that should be a pick up - on paper - for the House Democrats. Given Bell’s work ethic and tenure, he would be the ONLY Republican to make up the structural advantage the Democrats have in the 55th.

Bell had 73k COH at the end of the first report with not a lot of donations. First question here has to be “Is Bell running for this seat?”

The Democrats have three candidates announced thus far, so let’s take a look at their first fundraising reports.

Amy Laufer - 61k raised, 60k COH, 57 over $100 and 68 under.

Donna Price - 11k raised, 7k COH, 10 over $100 and 30 under.

Kellen Squire - 41k raised, 28k COH, 34 over $100 and 406 under.

All things totaled up here - that 406 under $100 shows real strength for Squire.

Early analysis? Squire with slight lead over Laufer and Price a distant 3rd.

55th? Lean Democratic Pick Up

COMPETITIVE DISTRICT ALERT!!!

FINALLY!

Ooooh…where is that, you ask?

Booming Short Pump and home of yours truly.

Saving the best for last. #VanessaWilliams (video below)

David Owen is the lone announced candidate for the GOP. He raised 40k, has 39k COH with 36 donors over $100 and 3 under. He chipped in 10k of his own. Also hearing that Tony Pham is considering a run.

Susanna Gibson is listed as a candidate and has a website but no financial report for the first period while Bob Shippee posted solid numbers: 50k raised, 48k COH, 48 donors over $100 and 118 under.

The 57th is going to be very competitive and has a Slight Lean Republican; however, this is one of the districts with a lot of voter turnover and if Donald Trump is the dominant national narrative next year at election time that could tip the balance to the Democrats.

Early lead for Shippee with Clean Virginia’s 20k kickoff donation, but Gibson’s health care background could provide an edge. Look for more Clean Virginia money to move the needle Left towards Shippee.

TOSS UP

Speaking of Clean Virginia.

Sometimes the snow comes down in June…