Four - no FIVE - House Districts for 2023 Broken Down
Fowler, Owen, Orrock, Ransone, Robinson, Earley Jr, Adams, Bourne, and Carr.
First an update from yesterday’s post on HD57 - there is at least one Republican announced, running, and raising money in the Short Pump heavy Toss Up district. I didn’t see David Owen’s publicly available information on VPAP for my analysis. Given that several folks quickly notified me about Owen’s candidacy AND that he called me, I would say that Owen is fully engaged in the nomination for the 57th.
General Assembly insiders might recall his father, Bill Owen, a long time legislative committee clerk and a truly fine man. Served the Commonwealth for 66 years and was a pilot in WWII.
Owen’s first financial report was 41k raised, 39k Cash On Hand from 36 donations over $100 and 3 under $100. His campaign consultant, Aaron Evans, updated me on his fundraising and apparently Owen has raised almost $100k to date. A solid start for a seat that could run close to $4MM for the whole cycle.
Yes, $2MM per side for a seat that pays $17.6k a year.
AAAAND we're back…
House District 59
Incumbent Republican Buddy Fowler is the early favorite for this nomination contest with attorney Philip Strother. The 59th went 63% for Governor Glenn Youngkin and will very likely send a Republican to Richmond in thirteen months.
Fowler raised 23k, has 41k COH from 40 donors over $100 and 3 under. Those numbers are okay, but Strother didn’t have any donations in the first report; however, being an attorney with a winery could be an indication of a potential self funding candidate who can also access money.
Solid early lead for Fowler, but don’t sleep on this nomination fight as his old district comprises around 42% of the new 59th and he has just 41k COH.
Republican HOLD
House District 67 and 66
Why list them 67 then 66? Well, my Spidey Sense (no trademark pending) says that like almost all of the House Republican districts with more than one incumbent, things have been worked out between Delegates Bobby Orrock and Margaret Ransone.
The new 67th, which went 64% for Youngkin a year ago, is almost entirely Ransone’s current 99th. How much is “almost entirely”? Try 97%.
Oh. Yeah.
Ransone raised 12k has 151k COH from 32 donors over $100 and 70 under. Solid base.
Orrock raised 13k has 122 COH from 16 donors over $100 and 0 under. Solid #s.
BUT right next door is House District 66 which is 61% of Orrock’s current 54th HD.
SO, that sets a move for Orrock into the 66th which went 57% for Youngkin.
Whereas the 67th is a Republican district and very likely will return Ransone to the House, the 66th is a Lean Republican district for now. Orrock will, in all likelihood, also return to Richmond as he has since 1990; however, the 66th could turn problematic and expensive for the GOP if Trump is the dominant national narrative this time next year.
67th - Republican Hold
66th - Probable Republican Hold
Now for the 73rd House District down in Chesterfield County.
There are currently three Republicans running in the 73rd - Mark Earley Jr, Ryan Harter, and incumbent Delegate Roxann Robinson.
Let’s hit the finance reports first:
Earley - 7k raised, 6k COH, 11 over $100 and 13 under. Meh.
Harter - 13k raised, 13k COH, 6 over $100 and 11 under. Meh + 1
Robinson 52k raised, 56k COH, 67 over $100 and 34 under. Meh x 2.5.
Robinson has faced some very challenging races and is no doubt well schooled in the art of tight elections. She’s also way out in front on fundraising but her coffers were drained from the previous battles.
Robinson also has an advantage in that 25% of the new 73rd is her old 27th. Normally, 25% in a nomination fight would be less of an advantage but this is a three way race and cobbling together the rest to get the nomination will depend a LOT on the method.
IF a majority is required via in a convention format or through a Ranked Choice Voting firehouse primary, that would be more cumbersome for Robinson vs. a primary in which getting to 35-40% could be the goal.
Certainly a nomination contest to watch as this 57% Youngkin district would give Robinson or Earley or Harter a bit more breathing room than Robinson’s old 27th.
Early ranking? 1) Robinson 2) Earley on name ID from previous House run but not far behind is 3) Harter. Both Earley and Harter will likely go after Robinson’s voting record - after 12 years and probably close to 25,000 votes any opposition research worth their salt will find something. BUT attacking someone also drives their name ID.
Have fun, kids. I rate this a Two Popcorn Bagger.
Republican Hold is probable here.
Oooookay. Buckle UP!
What’s your favorite popcorn? Let’s open the bidding at FOUR Bags of Popcorn for the new 78th House District.
This is an absolute DOOZY of nomination battle located entirely in the City of Richmond. The 78th has THREE Democratic incumbents - Delegates Dawn Adams, Jeff Bourne, and Betsy Carr. ABC…it’s easy as Do Re Me.
Fundraising report:
Adams - 11k raised, 135k COH, 13 over $100 and 70 under. Good COH.
Bourne - 21k raised, 83k COH, 12 over $100 and 6 under. Solid start but behind.
Carr - 55k raised, 284k COH, 100 over $100 and 51 under. We have a leader.
1)Carr 2)Adams 3) Bourne
Old districts making up the 78th:
Adams - 41%
Bourne - 40%
Carr - 19%
1) Adams 2) Bourne 3) Carr
Let’s wait unit the Q3 reports are out in ten days before we handicap the 78th.
Ease up on the buttered popcorn for now. That’s a lot of unnecessary calories so early in the race.
Nomination - TOSS UP
General Election - Democrat Hold - the Nomination is the General as the 78th is a 70/30 Democratic district.
Heck yeah…let’s roll some Jackson 5 for this one.
I listened to this album almost every night during elementary school years 4th through 6th grade. So good. Thanks to Adams, Bourne, and Carr for a trip through the Wayback Machine.
That’s enough for today.