Good News for Virginia Republicans - Early Voting (EV) encouraging, DLCC sets targets, Bill Maher roasted Biden.

Mr. Brightside, Metallica in Moscow (yes, again), and Stevie Ray Vaughan.

There are two pieces of good news for Virginia Republicans these days:

1. The Early Voting effort by Governor Glenn Youngkin’s PAC - the Spirit of Virginia seems to be paying off.

   Republicans (in bold) are even in key districts - Senate District 17 (Brewer/Jenkins) and House District 57 (Owen/Gibson) as well as being slightly ahead in SD 24 (Mason/Diggs).

   SD 16 (Dunnavant/VanValkenburg) shows Sen. Dunnavant - 14 points behind but that’s much better than where GOP candidates have historically been. SD 17 (Segura v. Perry) also has a slight lead in EV for the Republican Segura with Perry leading the Mail In Ballots thus far.

   House Republicans need wins in Districts 82 and 97 in order to retain their majority. Democrats are up 62% to 35% in HD 82 (Taylor/Pope Adams), while HD 97 (Greenhalgh/Feggans) Democrats are only up 53-47 at this point.

   Early Voting numbers as of Oct 2.

2. A key National Democratic organization has announced their target list of districts indicating a very tight race for control of both chambers. The key in their announcement is broken down below:

The DLCC is a national organization that raises money for Democrats at the state level. The RSLC does the same for Republicans.

Reporting from Brandon Jarvis indicates that the DLCC is targeting a total of 12 General Assembly races. The DLCC believes that 17 Senate and 46 House districts are safe.

In order to win the majority outright in the Senate Democrats need just 4 of the seats bolded below while the House Democrats need 5.

Notice that the cutoff for targeting districts is where Glenn Youngkin’s margin of victory in 2021 was under 5 points.

This is not to suggest that Virginia Democrats have entirely cut off funding in the other races, but where the DLCC has made its targeting is consistent with 2021 numbers. If races are outside the Margin of Error (MOE) - this decision shows the DLCC has 2021 districts that were +5 for Youngkin now out of reach for them.

Senate Races - Bold Targeted by DLCC

1. 16 - VanValkenburg (D) v. Dunnavant (R) McAuliffe +6.4

2. 22 - Rouse (D) v. Adams (R) McAuliffe +5.5

3. 30 - Open - Roem (D) v. Woolf (R) McAuliffe +3.7

4. 31 - Open - Perry (D) v Segura (R) - Youngkin +0.6

5. 24 - Mason (D) v. Diggs (R) - Youngkin +3.4

6. 17 - Open - Jenkins (D) v. Brewer (R) - Youngkin +5.2

7. 27 - Open - Griffin (D) v. Durant (R) - Youngkin +8.5

House Races - Bold Targeted by DLCC. Italics = incumbent

1. 58 - Willett (D) v. Riley (R) - McAuliffe +4.8

2. 94 - Hernandez (D) v. Pittman (R) - McAuliffe +3.9

3. 84 - Clark (D) v. Dillender (R) - McAuliffe +2.3

   Note - Clark is an incumbent but had to move into this district.

4. 82 - Pope Adams (D) v. Taylor ( R ) - Youngkin +2.1

5. 97 - Feggans (D) v. Greenhalgh ( R ) Youngkin +2.2

6. 65 - Cole (D) v. Peters (R) Open - Youngkin +2.9

   Note - Cole formerly served in the House

7. 57 - Gibson (D) v. Owen (R) Open - Youngkin +2.9

8. 21 - Thomas (D) v. Stirrup (R) Open - Youngkin +3.4

9. 22 - Nembard (D) v. Lovejoy (R) Open - Youngkin +7

10. 89 - Jenkins (D) v. Ennis (R) Open - Youngkin +7.5

11. 75 - Miller-Pitts (D) v. Coyner ( R ) - Youngkin +8.1

    Of course, it’s still early and there are 35 more days until Election Day BUT these Early Voting (EV) numbers indicate that the Youngkin led GOP is ahead of previous years.

    Bill Maher is back and Joe Biden suffered as a result:

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had a good segment as well:

And has it been 32 years since Metallica drew over 1,000,000 to Moscow?? Yes, everyone in attendance is now middle aged. Good luck with that, Vlad.

And Happy Birthday to our son-in-law USMC Sgt. Kyle Taylor! He turned 30 today.

Other birthdays of note on 10/3 - Chubby Checker, Fred Couples, Gwen Stefani, Al Sharpton, Sean Duffy, and this guy (RIP):