Hey, Virginia! It's Election Day - Again.
The #1 Unasked Question in Virginia politics. Pretty Woman, Isaac Hayes, and Stealers Wheel.
While Virginia has an election of consequence every year, this one is a doozy.
Once again, the Commonwealth has been the political lab rat for the two national political parties in this gubernatorial mid term election.
Briefly:
Historic Realignment - 140 brand new and largely permanent legislative districts of which 90% of the outcomes were determined during the nomination phase. #Redistricting
Historic Legislative Turnover - over 600 years of combined legislative experience either retired or defeated thus far.
About a dozen seats are “in play” and those races have been the recipient of historic and an OBSCENE amount of money - most of which will have been generated outside the Commonwealth.
Additionally, the decisive issue(s) is/are national in scope driven primarily by the response to the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the national economy.
To recap: very intense local races with national money and national issues - for the most part.
I don’t do predictions and prefer to watch political trends in order to inform the business community about what is coming.
But here are some observations for your Election Day.
Structure of the race - national right track v. wrong track favors the GOP (24 to 67) because Democrat in the White House, funding favors the Democrats, and the issue intensity of abortion favors Democrats in a low turn out election.
This thing is going to be over analyzed, but it is clearly a bellwether on where the national parties are heading. Mid terms are BASE ELECTIONS. This is primarily about where the two main parties are going.
Example #1 - the attention that Governor Glenn Youngkin is getting is a tell. He’s not on the ballot, yet national folks are all worked up on whether he runs for president or not. Why so worked up? Well, 70% + of the country doesn’t want a Joe Biden v. Donald Trump rematch. Otherwise, Youngkin wouldn’t be getting all this attention. #GenerationalChangeComing
Some have written that this is a referendum on Youngkin. It’s not. If it were, Democrats would be attacking him. And they aren’t. Their focus is…abortion rights; however, Democrats would love to stop Youngkin in Virginia in the process. He’s a Republican unicorn and would be a national force. Yeah, Youngkin’s that good.
Most of the over analysis will be placed into predetermined and dominant narratives that political forces WANT to have played out. Those narratives never factor in the most important element in elections - candidate quality.
Having spoken with a LOT of state and national media, campaign consultants, and candidates from both parties, much of the script from tonight’s results has already been written.
Why. Well, no one really knows how these things are going finish up. It’s close. It has been close and was always going to be close. That said, it doesn’t take much in close elections to make a BIG difference.
Since voting started, three key events have occurred - the House GOP shut down Congress, Hamas slaughtered Israelis and Israel responded, and a mentally deranged man in Maine killed 18 people with an AR15. It only takes a hundred votes in these districts to make a difference and it’s too late to test poll, focus group or model voter reactions to those events. So, if they do impact the outcomes you will never know it.
The close races (top 10% or about a dozen seats) that will determine control of the General Assembly are the obvious focus, but there are a lot of other races that will show over or under performances that need to be understood.
THOSE races more than the “swing seats” will point to the future behavior of the two major parties. Since the presidential nomination is well under way - that’s a big deal.
90% (!) of the Virginia districts - just like 90% of congressional districts - are INTERNAL battles and the competition for election is the party’s nomination. When the new Virginia House is sworn in on January 10th, they have 17 months until their real election day - June 18, 2025 and 15.5 months until voting starts - again - around May 3rd, 2025. The two year term has shrunk by almost 10 months.
Candidates running for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General are now on the clock.
Which brings us to the #1 Unasked Question in Virginia politics. It’s not whether Glenn Youngkin runs for president, it’s what Virginia Republicans do without him. Good luck with that.
RIP Richard Roundtree.