Hokies, Biden, Zelenskyy - Oh My!
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Topics? The General Assembly - will they finish on time? They’d better given circumstances and polling (we’ll talk…) Sine Die is just 8 days away. The Congressional midterms (GOP +37), Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (take Ukraine and the Over), and speaking of taking the Under - Joe Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU). See you at 3pm today.
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WAY back on January 28th, I compared the Virginia Tech men’s basketball team with Joe Biden and the Democrats. The Hokies had just lost to Miami at home on a last second half court bank shot and were 10-10.
Here’s that amazing column ICYMI entitled :
Can the Hokies teach Biden and the Democrats a lesson in winning this year?
Turnarounds begin when you admit there is a problem.
Here’s what I wrote then:
To Coach Young’s credit, he was right. It turned and the then ACC last place Hokies have won 9 of the last 10, are now in 6th, and projected to beat Clemson tomorrow 69-68 to finish 20-11. Now THAT’S a turnaround.
They are the #4 team in the country in 3pt shooting and have been lights out since the Miami loss.
Over at kenpom.com you can see that the Hokies are now ranked #27 and MIGHT make the NCAA Tournament. VT could be a dangerous team.
Please consult KenPom for all of your March Madness bracket filling needs.
The Hokies kept grinding, got hot from behind the 3pt line, and started winning. 3 is still more than 2.
#Math.
So, what of Joe Biden and the national Democrats?
What’s their strength? Why are they in the White House with a majority in the House and control of the Senate.
Donald Trump.
He REALLY helps their math.
Democrats have had a singular focus since November 2016 - beat Donald Trump. That’s it.
Like the beginning of Metallica’s “Nothing Else Matters” (Zoom On Hold below)
So close, no matter how far
Couldn't be much more from the heart
Forever trusting who we are
And nothing else matters
That. Was. It.
Orange Man Bad. He Must Go.
From November 2016 to November 2020, the Democrats were united. Since the election of Joe Biden? Not so much.
Remember on Election Night 2016, THE REASON Hillary Clinton lost, apart from being her fabulous self, is that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan went Red because the Green Party/Libertarian/Evan McMullin votes went to NOT Hillary.
*Reminder* - Libertarian activists are former Republicans, but their voters are primarily Democratic by about 2 to 1 according to the Virginia Libertarian Party Chair Bo Brown.
2016?
Michigan - Trump +10,704. Greens 51,463 + Libertarians 172,136 or 223k
Pennsylvania - Trump +44,292. Greens 49,941 + Libertarians 146,715 or 196k
Wisconsin - Trump +22,748. Greens 31,072 + Libertarians 106,674 or 138k
2020? Greens didn’t make the ballot in Pennsylvania and barely cracked 1,000 votes in Wisconsin. Libertarians posted 110k less in Michigan, 67k less in Pennsylvania, and almost 70k less in Wisconsin.
Michigan - Biden +155k
Pennsylvania - Biden +81k
Wisconsin - Biden +20k
The old adage about being divided and falling comes into play.
Folks, politics is just math. Division loses. Addition wins. Plain and simple.
In Virginia’s 2021 elections, front runner and former Governor Terry McAuliffe faced FOUR primary opponents all younger and from the Left. Four. One of the reasons he lost to Glenn Youngkin? Lack of enthusiasm from Young and Left of his party.
Biden’s numbers are dismal in the low 40s, but look at the Direction of Country:
And only 57% of BIDEN voters what him to run again in 2024. Trump and Biden are both underwater among RVs on the question of do they want the 2020 candidates again in 2024.
Enter the SOTU in which Biden tried to pivot and change his trajectory as well as that of the Democrats.
Thought I wasn’t going to get back to the Hokies lesson? Please.
The SOTU speech…well, it wasn’t so much a speech as a loud reading of sentences. Being charitable here - Joe Biden has never been a great speaker; however, the actual text of the unmasked, but socially distanced Mardi Gras SOTU showed the cleavages within the Democratic Party. Biden knows he has to move to the Center but his party’s base just will not let him. There was no theme and flow to the SOTU. At all.
But…
There were THREE responses to the President’s poorly constructed and poorly delivered address from WITHIN his 2020 winning coalition.
THREE.
The Greens, the Congressional Black Caucus, and the Progressive Cuckoo Caucus.
So, FOUR SOTU speeches from the Center Left, Left, Left Left, and the Left Leaving Left.
The Republicans countered from the heartland with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
One.
And before you cry partisanship about my criticism of Biden’s speech - Barack Obama’s reading of a pharmaceutical warning label would be riveting. That man could nail a speech. Some are just better at it than others and when Biden needed to drain a 3pt shot, it was an air ball.
The upshot (see what I did there?) is that the Democratic party has been so laser focused on Donald Trump that without him they are a rudderless ship with a weak and ineffective captain at the wheel.
Gas prices are up and Biden’s solution is to add supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but NOT add supply from Canada via the Keystone Pipeline.
Ban Russian oil? Do it! But wait where does it go? The West Coast. It backfills the lower production from Alaska. #SanFrancisco5BuckGas.
Four SOTUs. One visual - the masks are off the faces of elected Democrats and their entire agenda.
Clearly.
Without Donald Trump, just where are they going? In four directions. That’s leadership that’s hard to follow.
How many Democratic campaign consultants have called Twitter asking them to reinstate Orange Man Bad’s account?
I set the Over/Under at 1,042.
<end scene>
Another adage continues to be ignored - the failure to learn from history.
Case study - Ukraine.
Want to know how bad our history instruction is in the U.S.?
Try this tweet from CNN. Not only was it considered, written, and offered up for inspection - it passed and was posted.
uhh…NO.
As Jerry Baliles reminded us about what Benjamin Disraeli said:
Remember the context.
Recently, I have facetiously lamented the lack of the Cold War since it removed a common uniting element of our country - hating the Soviet Union.
Sadly, I was right - but maybe we can come together to support the real winner of the SOTU and the strongest, clearest leader in the world right now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Last note is from a friend who works in Saudi Arabia:
It's fascinating to be in a foreign country during a challenging/troubling time in world events, and to compare the news coverage in the region to that which we get at home. There's a lot of concern here about a "weaker, meeker" United States, although the criticism is muted by a strong desire to maintain a good relationship. Watch for the Kingdom to draw a bit closer to China, just to hedge its bets.
Take Russia on the Under and China on the short/mid term Over.
See you at 3pm!