House Democrats Oust Filler-Corn, Youngkin 51-35 in poll, Elon Musk - Twitter + Tesla = Market Share.
Virginia's the Queen Mother of Bellwethers.
Today’s Zoom at 3pm - A LOT to cover!
Honestly, where does one start in trying to explain Virginia politics?
Wednesday’s leadership change by House Democrats should not be considered shocking. Democrats had very close contests for caucus control after they won the majority, so losing that majority would naturally jeopardize their leaders.
Suffice it to say, Delegate Eileen Filler-Corn has never had a firm grip on her caucus having won close leadership elections and she barely lost the vote Wednesday.
Just one vote.
Was Wednesday about the younger more aggressive progressives making a move? Like most things in politics - it’s complicated, but Democrats nationally are losing the enthusiasm of younger progressive voters.
See my 2024 Electoral College Preview on the Democrats problem with younger voters. (AH - yes - the possible move by Joe Biden to forgive student loan debt.)
There’s more to the leadership change than age demographics. This likely came down to the simple fact that they lost control of the House in November and had no clear plan to win it back. In fact, they could possibly lose even more seats this year.
Can’t blame them for being nervous and searching for direction.
Remember, Virginia’s House of Delegates could be facing ANOTHER round of elections when the national leader of their party is in stuck in the low 40s and a net negative four points worse than Election Day 2021. On top of that, how about all of those PRIMARIES within the Democratic Caucus?
*ChecksVPAP* (reminds self to send them $)
17 (SEVENTEEN) House Democrats ALREADY have primaries for the next election - which could be this year. Which means NOW. On top of that 15 (FIFTEEN) House Democrats are currently slated to run against a fellow member of their caucus after redistricting changed their district lines.
Yeah, it’s complicated. But it’s also just math.
Many will think, “well, Leader Filler-Corn couldn’t handle her own caucus…” That’s technically accurate - but also WAY off the mark. Especially given the apparent deep divisions within that caucus. If you win a caucus election by just a couple of votes, you don’t sit, you live under a sword of Damocles.
NOT ONE PERSON comes to mind that could have kept that naturally fractious group together. And I don’t mean another House Democrat. I mean ANYONE. Period. Wednesday’s close vote doesn’t portend the emergence of a consensus leader and the divisions could deepen.
Democratic consultant and strategist, Ben Tribbett, explained to me years ago:
The Democratic Party is a complex coalition.
No kidding.
Imagine this ever present reality whenever, as their elected leader, your phone rings or you read a text:
If I don’t get what I want right now, you lose my support…
Some have suggested that this was all brought on by Clean Virginia’s displeasure with Leader Filler-Corn and a progressive vs. moderate thing. Shaun Kenney had a fairly convincing column on that line of thinking ; however, Filler-Corn is a solid progressive. This seems more operational than ideological.
I think this was a straight up power play. In baseball terms - see ball, hit ball.
Delegate Scott waited for his pitch and hit it. (he’s a baseball guy BTW - see interview below)
This is not a knock on Democrats, but an observation of their behavior during this historic political realignment of the last two decades. (Which is global by the way)
Republicans have their own unique issues which we have discussed here, but what they both excel at is winning by being against the leader of the opposite party. House Democrats came into power largely because Donald Trump was in the White House and Republicans used that same construct with Joe Biden to win their House majority back.
It’s just the nature of a binary political system trying to govern 330+ million people during a period of massive and accelerating change. The force is stunning BUT Force = Mass X Acceleration. f= ma
It just is.
If you follow politics for business, cultural, or just general interest reasons, this is absolutely critical to understand. Not only is Virginia the Mother of Presidents, it’s also more directly - the Queen Mother of Bellwethers.
PAY ATTENTION TO VIRGINIA POLITICS.
Translated - this is already happening around the country and especially in Congress. Or do you think once Speaker Nancy Pelosi (82), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (82), and South Carolina’s Jim Clyburn (81) et al. are no longer in the majority after this November that they will be able to muster enough votes to run their caucus?
Uhhh…
Did Virginia just show you that outcome or can Filler-Corn get that one vote back by offering a solid plan to regain the majority.
I wouldn’t rule her out just yet since politics is about the future and pitching “Message received, now let’s move forward together!” could sell.
The nation soon will see in which direction Democrats are likely going based on what Virginia House Democrats do next.
Stay tuned…until then here is my interview in March with Delegate Don Scott - the leader of yesterday’s leadership change and probable front runner for House Minority Leader.
Morning Consult rolled out polling of every governor in the country. The most popular govs? Republican governors of the deep blue states Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland.
Governor Glenn Youngkin’s number are holding steady at 51-35. Assuming 14 points undecided and a 50/50 break, up 50s is pretty good after his first 100 days given the mood of the country.
VERY important article written by Jonathan Haidt in The Atlantic entitled:
WHY THE PAST 10 YEARS OF AMERICAN LIFE HAVE BEEN UNIQUELY STUPID - It’s not just a phase.
Social scientists have identified at least three major forces that collectively bind together successful democracies: social capital (extensive social networks with high levels of trust), strong institutions, and shared stories. Social media has weakened all three.
Social media, rightly, gets it in the teeth. Which brings us to…
How about Elon Musk buying Twitter? No small thing there but the reaction has been - true to Twitter - a little over the top. Read the article.
Let’s run some numbers. Twitter has 230 MILLION daily users, 1.3 BILLION in quarterly revenue, and $513 MILLION in quarterly earnings or $2.23 per daily user per quarter.
Methinks a business model change is in the offing BUT let’s not discount another gleaming opportunity for Mr. Musk - marketing his Teslas and locking down future market share. With Musk’s 87 MILLION followers on Twitter, Tesla probably just won some of the future.
Check out Musk’s recent tweet about his political leanings over the last dozen or so years…
Very telling.
Buying Twitter is a solid business play on several levels - just look at the number of likes. 1.2 Million. That kind of engagement is just ridiculous and tweeting out information on the latest Tesla products is pretty cheap advertising. Just saying…
Here are some recent figures about Tesla:
This all brought to mind the scene from Superman II when Lex Luthor was asked what he wanted in his deal with Zod to rule the world.
Given his affinity for beach front property all he asked for was?
Musk doesn't want it all - no one can have that. But clearly the man has goals.
And finally…
New article with a study from Nature entitled : Virtual communication curbs creative idea generation.
we demonstrate that videoconferencing hampers idea generation because it focuses communicators on a screen, which prompts a narrower cognitive focus. Our results suggest that virtual interaction comes with a cognitive cost for creative idea generation.
Yes, humans are more creative around other humans.
Machines, by their nature, dehumanize.
Have a great humanizing weekend!
Start with the Doobie Brothers Greatest Hits:
Throw in some Allman Brothers
Or some EWF