Hutchinson, SCOTUS, DeSantis, Youngkin, TikTok, and Biden at 38% in RCP.
Happy Bobby Bonilla Day and Happy 4th of July! Videos from Whitney, Simon and Garfunkel, and Neil Diamond
Virginia FREE Friday at 3pm today - Click Here!
Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! Bonilla will be paid $1.19MM by the New York Mets every July 1 until 2035. No word on whether he sends some back to the Pirates for hitting .190 in the 1990 NLCS. I used to loathe him and would taunt him from the stands. Now, I just tip the hat. Read the story and celebrate labor beating stupid management.
And we’re back…
1 - Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony was stunning. Linked here is the entirety of her appearance before the 1/6 Committee and…well…the world.
Conservative media have been playing to their audience by focusing on whether or not Donald Trump lunged at the wheel of the vehicle he was in on 1/6/21. Memes have popped up showing the impossibility of that if he was in The Beast - the presidential limo while others have stated that he was in a Suburban making it more plausible.
As a result, supporters of Trump have insisted that her entire testimony was a lie. <insert eye roll> But if you recall, Hutchinson merely relayed what she was told of the incident by someone else - namely Tony Ornato then White House deputy chief of staff for operations. #CallTony
Frankly, the conflict over that small element of her testimony about January 6 is a ruse. But a smart one.
Far more jolting, that has received very little attention, was Hutchinson’s assertion that on January 2nd of 2021, Rudy Giuliani told her that on January 6th “they were going to the Capitol.” For me, that lays out the very real probability that the whole thing was planned and not some protest that merely got out of hand. My original call from 1/7 stands.
2 - Governors Glenn Youngkin and Ron DeSantis had very good weeks. Not only do they come across as the competent leaders of a new generation of presidential aspirants, they create for conservatives an exit off of Interstate Electoral Defeat onto the Road to the White House. Youngkin was profiled in this Time Magazine piece.
3 - Recent New Hampshire polling shows DeSantis leading Trump 39-37 among Granite Staters which is a dramatic shift from October 2021 polling by the same operation showing Trump leading 43-18 over the governor of Florida. That’s +25 to -2 in less than nine months - net 27 points in 9 months? Three points a month. DeSantis covering the spread looks like a solid bet but he too will have to hold up over the next two years to secure the nomination. Yes, the presidential cycle is back on.
4 - The AP is reporting that the GOP has seen a net growth of 1MM registered voters over Democrats. That should help many Republicans accelerate their current slow drift away from the former president. Suburban concerns over crime and inflation could be the drivers. Virginia murders have gone from 299 in 2011 to 570 in 2021.
5 - It’s only a matter of time before the damn breaks on Democrats seeking to challenge President Joe Biden. California Governor Gavin Newsom is my pick to be the first to early primary/caucus states after the November elections. (Side note - his former wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, is now engaged to Donald Trump Jr.) Biden’s polling is at an all time low:
5 - The recent SCOTUS decisions clearly tell Congress and state legislatures, in no uncertain terms, that they are not going to do their jobs for them. It could be the healthiest thing for our Republic in a very long time. For too long, the two major political parties have gotten fat, rich, and desperately lazy #Corrupt by putting off tough decisions. Democrats could have codified Roe when they had the White House, the House, and a 60 seat majority in the Senate. Instead, they strung along their voters and campaign funding operations for years. Likewise, Republicans have refused to make policy gains in the areas of immigration, gun violence/mental health, and school choice.
Side note #2 - Congress passed a bill on gun violence/mental health etc - when 15 Republican Senators voted in favor. Whether or not you agree with every aspect of the bill, they got something done. Sadly, it took the murderous tragedy of 19 and an “abject failure” by local police to pass a relatively modest bill. Governing by crisis is unsustainable, folks.
6 - While progressives are bemoaning the conservative SCOTUS rulings, it gives them a real chance to turn voters back in their direction by forcing them to win the debate versus relying on the Courts to serve as an extra super duper legislature. This will force the next generation of pragmatic leaders (see above) to…compromise.
Yes, the C word - you know - the reason we have politics in the first place.
Force = mass times acceleration.
7 - Shifting to business.
From John Mauldin’s usually excellent and free newsletter comes this succinct description of what oil and natural gas companies are doing these days:
They won’t invest in long-term growth because they’re not confident there will be any. They see both governments and consumers increasingly favoring renewable energy, environmental regulations making fossil fuel production more expensive, and higher interest rates raising the cost of the capital that would let them overcome the other obstacles.
On top of that, the very real possibility of a global recession cratering fuel demand in the next year or two, thereby rendering any new capital investments unprofitable, gives energy producers every incentive to extract as much cash as they can, now. That happens to be what their investors want, too.
More impactful might be this graphic Mauldin shared showing the breakdown of the number of public vs. private companies with annual revenues over $100MM. Astonishingly, there are 2,8000 public companies over that revenue mark but more than 18,000 private companies.
8 - Given the negative economic growth of Q1 this year, eyes are on the Q2 numbers which will be out soon. A second quarter of negative growth is technically a recession. This will turn policy makers to offer up “Hey, what can we do to grow the economy?”
9 - Looks like Republicans in Congress will not be working with the US Chamber of Commerce anytime soon. They have aligned with a new group of business leaders called the American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce.
10 - Lastly, and perhaps most importantly is this move reported in WAPO:
FCC commissioner calls on Google and Apple to ban TikTok app
The concerns are justified for several reasons. Chief among them, national security issues aside (not that we should put them there), is the MASSIVE use of social media.
Go. Outside.
Some great videos for the 4th Weekend
Whitney Houston - best National Anthem ever
Simon and Garfunkel - America (live in Central Park)
Neil Diamond - America