Is it about the tariffs? Ray Dalio and Caddyshack
Nirvana, the Clash, and REM
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, posted recently on X.com a column entitled: Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs
That column has 13MM views thus far and is well worth the read.
Also consider his upcoming book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycles (mine arrives June 2)
Here’s the X column in bullets for you:
• Dalio argues that people are focusing too much on the announced tariffs while missing the larger underlying forces that led to them.
• He identifies five major forces causing a "classic breakdown" of global orders that occurs approximately once per lifetime:
Monetary/economic order is breaking down due to unsustainable debt levels, especially between debtor nations (like the US) and creditor nations (like China).
Domestic political order is deteriorating because of large gaps in education, opportunity, wealth, and values, leading to win-at-all-cost fights between right and left populists.
International geopolitical world order is transitioning from US-led multilateralism to a unilateral "America first" approach, manifesting in trade, technology, and military conflicts.
Acts of nature (droughts, floods, pandemics) are becoming increasingly disruptive.
5. Technological changes, particularly AI, will significantly impact all aspects of life.
• Dalio urges readers to focus on these five forces and their interrelationships rather than being distracted by dramatic news events like tariff announcements.
• He suggests studying historical parallels to anticipate possible policy responses that might once have seemed unimaginable (capital controls, special taxes, suspended debt payments).
I never thought I would find a valuable Caddyshack political reference - but here we are!
Bishop Fred Pickering going for the club record in the thunderstorm scene.
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