Kiggans - Luria debate, Bernanke wins Nobel, and Independent/Swing Voters are swinging!
Wages down, inflation is up, China stiff arms Russia
Virginia FREE Friday at 3pm EST today. Click here or reply to this email for the weekly calendar invite. It’s a good group that gathers for a lively call every Friday.
I was honored to moderate the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce sponsored debate between incumbent Congresswoman Elaine Luria and State Senator Jen Kiggans.
WAPO article and VA Pilot on the debate. I was asked who won but frankly my time was spent managing the time and flow of questions - there really was not much of an opportunity to listen to the candidates. But the Twitter trolls sure did…yeesh - what’s with those folks? They’re just not healthy people.
What a week! Ben Bernanke won a Nobel Prize for his work in financial crises.
China gave Russia a stiff arm at the U.N. and inflation numbers worsened.
What went unreported in the Bernanke announcement was that the Nobel Prize for Advancements in Fire Firefighting was awarded posthumously to Emperor Nero.
But I digress…
Let’s follow up on previous newsletters about the importance of independent and swing voters.
Look at these polling numbers from Real Clear Politics. Bold are incumbents.
In Pennsylvania - Democrats lead but Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman are SEVEN points apart in the same poll in their races against Republicans Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz.
In Ohio - Republican candidate for US Senate, JD Vance, is net THIRTEEN points behind Governor Mike DeWine in their races against Democrats Congressman Tim Ryan and Nan Whaley.
In Arizona - Democrat Mark Kelly leads by four over Blake Masters for the US Senate but Republican Kari Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by three. A swing of 7 points.
In Wisconsin - Republican Ron Johnson leads Mandela Barnes by six for the US Senate but Democrat Tony Evers leads Tim Michels by one. Net seven point difference.
Yes, being an incumbent helps BUT look at the massive difference in South Dakota for Republicans Sen. John Thune and Governor Kristi Noem - net 21 points to the good for Thune.
In the end, candidate quality matters and being an incumbent has its built in advantages. Do I mean that Noem is not a quality candidate? I have no idea. Only met her once - nice person - but clearly South Dakotans vary in their support of incumbent statewide Republicans. Just saying…
Meanwhile back at the Ranch - real wages are down, inflation continues to go up, and all the stock indices have been trending down all year. That’s a toxic blend for the midterms - only 24 days away.
Polling suggests that now is a good time to start placing bets - things are starting to move or settle in.
There’s just a point in every cycle where things finally move, when undecideds decide. If I’m betting these days, bet the Republicans to over perform realistic expectations.
Some expectations have been too optimistic for the GOP.
Having a bad day or month?
At least you’re not in Russia.
Russia is having a bad month both at home:
And abroad - China and India abstained from a critical UN vote recognizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity. China’s abstention was YUGE. Bigly.
Russia getting the stiff arm from every country but Syria, Belarus, North Korea, and Nicaragua ain’t a good thang for Putin - which makes the situation in Ukraine all the more dangerous.
Other than that, I like Tennessee to beat Alabama this weekend in Knoxville. Not that I would put real money on it, I’m just in Nashville for a wedding and these people take college football very seriously.
Why ruin a perfectly good weekend, right?
If the Vols win expect a MASSIVE social media pop on this little ditty -
and since he is a reader of this newsletter, Tennesssee attorney, and one of the finest men I have ever known, Fred Bissinger of the Maplewood NJ Bissingers will celebrate the joyful union of his daughter to her betrothed.
This makes two college roommates celebrating weddings of daughters in back to back Friday weddings. Gotta be honest, it’s a great way to gather with long time friends, but a solid takeaway is Friday weddings are legit. HIGHLY RECOMMEND.
You don’t miss ANY college football, MLB playoff, or NHL games.
Just saying…It’s fall in the South and wedding planning begins with college football - unless the nuptials are in Blacksburg or Charlottesville.
Buh dum tis
