Liz Cheney lost but "thinking about" running for president, two VA Senate nominations previewed, Ranked Choice Voting, and Elvis Presley.

Cheney, Chase, Ramirez, Sturtevant, McGuire, and podcast with Sen. Pillion and Del. O'Quinn

Elvis Presley died 45 years ago yesterday but still managed to rake in over $30MM in 2021. Presley ranked #7 in ‘21 vs #6 Bing Crosby’s $33MM and #8 Arnold Palmer’s $27MM in dead celebrity earnings. #BrandsMatter

Full list of highest paid dead celebrities of 2021 here.

Why lead off with that list?

Well, watching the Political Duopoly cover and react to the Wyoming congressional primary last night, one can’t help wonder what the political value of soon to be former Congresswoman Liz Cheney will be going forward.

This morning Cheney told NBC’s Today Show that she was “thinking about” running for president. Translation - she’s running for POTUS and I doubt it will be as a Republican. Cue Elvis “Suspicious Minds”

We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much, baby
Why can't you see
What you're doing to me
When you don't believe a word I say?

We can't go on together
With suspicious minds (suspicious minds)
And we can't build our dreams
On suspicious minds

Sure Cheney lost, but she made it crystal clear that she has zero intentions of leaving the political battlefield. Last night’s speech made reference Ulysses Grant’s actions after in a key loss in the Civil War and Abraham Lincoln’s decisions to continue to seek office after losing elections.

Forward Party? Minds are suspicious for sure…

It would have been an epic but off brand trolling of Donald Trump by Cheney to challenge the Wyoming results by calling for a hand recount and full audit, but she doesn’t seem to possess much humor. Cheney may not be a happy warrior, but she sure ain’t a reluctant one.

My Spidey Sense is that Cheney will campaign against many Trump backed Republican nominees this fall while setting up an organization to run for president in the 2024 cycle. She’ll raise A LOT OF MONEY in the process.

With control of the U.S. Senate tilting more to the Democrats, Cheney could seriously impact several races in toss up elections in Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio. If the Dems sweep NH, PA, AZ, NV, GA, and OH they would increase their operating majority to an outright one, 52-48. That’s hard to imagine when Joe Biden continues to be a net -15.8 in the Real Clear Politics average - almost 8 points worse than Election Day 2021 when Republicans swept the three statewide offices here in Virginia.

In order for Cheney to make an effective third party or independent run, that campaign cannot center on the 2020 election or its aftermath. She will have to identify and campaign on many more issues that connect with voters seeking refuge from the two parties.

Then again, if Trump backed candidates lose this fall the message could be received by the Republican/MAGA base that the movement is more important than the man.

Speaking of Virginia, here is a preview of two State Senate nomination contests in districts that will more likely than not end up being won by Republicans. Reminder - I am doing these numerically.

If you want to see the rest of the General Assembly 2023 election previews hit this button, crack that wallet a bit, and get all the goods with the rest of the cool kids nerdling here in Election Nerd Disneyland:

Senate District 10

Currently there are four contestants with this week’s announcement by Sandy Brindley.

Duane Adams put together an impressive fundraising report with $188k raised, $167 Cash on Hand, 133 donations over $100 and 26 under $100.

Jack Dyer, on the other hand, loaned the campaign $100k and reported $152k COH with 21 donors over $100 and 5 under.

Brindley just announced so there is no report for the period and VPAP doesn’t show a report for Delegate John McGuire - a staunch defender of Donald Trump’s. McGuire attended the 1/6 rally protest, hosted a screening of 2,000 Mules, and recently held a rally in support of the former president after the FBI’s raid of Mar-A-Lago.

The 10th is probably going to be a party run convention or firehouse primary with Ranked Choice Voting. More candidates could announce.

New report from the Center for Campaign Innovation on Ranked Choice Voting results in Virginia - Click Here. Worth the read - no wonder Virginia Republicans are moving to it with reports like these. Only a matter of time before Democrats dip their toes in this electoral reform here in Virginia.

With a crowded field and a widely spread electorate, McGuire has the inside lane for the ten locality 10th.

Senate District 12

Three candidates have announced thus far here - incumbent Amanda Chase, former Senator Glen Sturtevant, and Tina Ramirez. This one will be hard to handicap given the field and the unknown position of Chase within the GOP base of this Chesterfield heavy district.

Chase’s history of controversy is well known; however, she seems to have steered clear of any negative stories lately. That does not mitigate all of the hard feelings she has generated during her tenure in the Senate which included her being voted out of the Chesterfield GOP committee.

The first question in this race will be the method of nomination and then will the district committee allow Chase to participate since she is not a member of the Chesterfield GOP. Were this a primary, she would be eligible if she collects the requisite number of signatures. Rules for a convention or firehouse primary using Ranked Choice Voting could be written that effectively exclude Chase from the Republican nomination.

In the meantime, Chase’s fundraising report was lackluster to say the least and she shows $0 COH.

Ramirez raised $183k has 129k COH with 41 donors over $100 and 78 under. It should be noted that she transferred $145k from her congressional campaign.

Sturtevant raised $99k has $100k COH from 83 donors over $100 and 65 under.

The 12th is 91% suburban Chesterfield County that Glenn Youngkin won by 14 and won by Trump in 2016 +13.

Given the unknown status of the nomination method and Chase within the district committee, this race is too early to even rate a Toss Up.

New category - We’ll See…

Recent VIP Podcast with Senator Todd Pillion and Delegate Israel O’Quinn: