Marijuana, Moderate Men, and the Era of Women.
2020 never ceases to amaze.
4 min read
There’s a great line from Kevin Bacon’s character, Fenwick, in the 1982 Barry Levinson classic movie “Diner.”
Do you ever get the feeling that there's something going on that we don't know about?
For instance, on the same day - Tuesday - Philip Morris International runs a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal talking about their innovative efforts to deliver a “smoke-free future”, the Governor of Virginia, a pediatric neurologist, endorses the legalization of marijuana.
Here’s the last paragraph of the PMI ad:
We were challenged to create better alternatives to cigarettes. We have delivered. Our mission now is to embrace this opportunity to deliver a smoke-free future.
Richmond Times Dispatch has an excellent article in Tuesday's edition on Northam's announcement.
Smart Approaches to Marijuana, a Virginia-based group that opposes the commercialization of marijuana, said it supports decriminalization and expungements, but called legal sales a step too far.
“Commercialization results in the creation of an addiction-for-profit industry that markets extremely potent marijuana products ... to young people and overwhelmingly targets communities of color and low income as profit centers,” the group’s president, Kevin Sabet, said in a statement.
I contacted one of the nation’s leading experts on addiction recovery who said the four most addictive things he sees are:
1) sugar 2) tobacco 3) alcohol and 4) pot
Legalization probably doesn’t pass in next year’s General Assembly given the recent decriminalization efforts and stated opposition from some in the Senate majority.
But as the Zen Master says, “we’ll see….”
Maybe some day this country will get serious about investing in healthy living versus fighting for another generation about how to finance the care of unhealthy living.
Perhaps the final marijuana deal will have the tax revenue dedicated to Medicaid funding since the reforms originally negotiated in the Expansion vote did not go forward. If that is the eventual deal, it will likely include zero Republican votes who feel more than duped by this administration. Okay, they are furious about that. Even if they want to provide some helpful votes, the GOP base will be even more punishing than 2019 nomination electorate was.
“Smoke 'em if you got 'em” could take on a whole new meaning going forward.
Business leaders I have spoken with express strong reservations about legalization because passing a pre-employment drug screening is already a high bar for many entry level applicants, not to mention current employees who fail random drug testing. The legalization of marijuana might mitigate racial inequities, but it also might develop more barriers to wealth creation and income inequality at the same time.
Mark Penn, Bill Clinton’s chief strategist in 1996, opines that the 2020 electorate was “Shockingly Moderate.’
Only 24% of voters identify as liberal, while 38% say they’re conservative, according to CNN exit polls. Another 38% are moderate.
But Mr. Biden expanded the Democratic lead among moderates to 30 points from 12 in 2016—the single most significant change. Moderate men swung the race to Mr. Biden.
The GOP succeeded in the House of Representatives with women and minority candidates. Expect that trend to continue and look for the Virginia House Republicans to pick up on that momentum. Gerald Seib’s column Big Year for Women Suggests New Era :
Yet, perhaps that complex reality is the most important revelation of all, and the surest sign the country’s political-power structure has just moved beyond stereotypes and tokenism. Much rhetoric is devoted to a political system that reflects the face of America. The women of 2020 may actually be turning that thought into a reality.
With all that in mind, we turn our attention to the 2021 elections here in Virginia as she will, once again, reprise her role as the bellwether for the Congressional mid terms which will take place in 2022.
Just as the 2017 Virginia elections showed the world just how unpopular Donald Trump was heading into the 2018 mid terms when the GOP lost 41 seats, Virginia very likely will be the test case for Joe Biden.
The day after the 2017 elections at Virginia Business Magazine’s annual election recap I was asked if I thought the Democrats could win back the House of Representatives. Since the Virginia GOP had just lost 15 House seats the night before, I said it was a very strong likelihood as the national Democrats only needed 25 seats. I might have muttered aloud, “Yeah, they’re done.”
The historic average loss for the party of the president in Congressional mid terms is 27 seats according to this article over at 538. That article also shows that Bill Clinton’s first mid term cost the Democrats 50 House seats and Barack Obama’s first mid term cost 60. George Bush’s Republicans picked up 8 House seats in 2002 for post-9/11 context.
Buckle up, folks!
2021 is going to be an amazing election cycle with over 30 statewide candidates so far, all 100 House districts up, one - if not two - special sessions, several COVID vaccines to get to market, and the first year of a new president.
Virginia FREE members and paid subscribers to The Intersection will be getting the most up to date information on this very important election cycle.
This newsletter is free but the deep dives, latest intel, invitations to participate in candidate engagement, and best analysis comes to you only by subscribing.
It’s a great value!
You will get analysis on the nomination contests and break down of all statewide candidates including their interviews. You will also get a break down on all 100 House races that will also be ranked according to their competitiveness. We will start issuing those reports this week as we go over them 20 districts at a time.
Moreover, you will get how all of this is likely to impact just about every segment of Virginia’s business and political community. You will want to know which industries stand to gain and which stand to lose given all the changing political dynamics.
You can't get this anywhere else. Only Virginia FREE members and subscribers will get this critical information and direct access for one on one help.