Nikki Haley's 2024 Landslide? CNN polling - the political realignment continues.
Joe Rogan, Oliver Anthony, Putri Ariani, Bob Dylan, and Fleetwood Mac
Virginia FREE Friday Zooming at 3pm - join the call here: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87140767140
Topics - Virginia elections for House and Senate, new CNN polling, Mike Pence’s Time for Choosing, 2024 race - Right v Left or Affluent vs Everyone Else.
Now let’s get to our Weekly Top Ten. As usual, in no particular order EXCEPT #1…
NIKKI HALEY. Wow. CNN released a new poll showing the former UN Ambassador and former South Carolina Governor beating Joe Biden by SIX 49-43. Cross tabs here for all you Political Nerds Nerdling around in Election Nerd Disneyland. Haley STARTS with an outside the Margin of Error (MOE) lead over Biden.
That’s realignment territory.
It’s been 20 years since a Republican has won the popular vote for president and if you give the remaining 8 points a 3-1-3-1 split going Republican - Democrat - Green Party - Libertarian…that’s an Electoral College BLOW OUT.
With a potential low double digit swing in performance Biden +5.5 to a Haley +6? The political realignment would be MASSIVE and GENERATIONAL.
Here are the 2020 results in order of finish with Biden’s numbers on the Left and Trump’s numbers on the Right. The middle column is Electoral Votes. (ah)
The House and Senate would clearly go Republican as well and the state legislatures would also see huge shifts.
Where are the shifts for Haley v. Biden? White college educated suburban women.
Women - Biden over Trump 53-41; but Haley is just 48-45 (+12 to +3) net 9 points.
White college degrees - Biden over Trump 54-40, but Haley is 51-44 (+14 to -7) net 21 points.
Earning 50k+ Biden trails Trump 44-49, but Haley leads 53-39 or net 9 points
Independents Biden over Trump 47-38, Haley? 45-40 over Biden or net 14 points.
But the media and both major political parties want a rematch of Biden and Trump.
According to the July Harvard Harris poll SEVENTY PERCENT of Americans want an alternative to Biden Trump II.
Which begs the question - how to do pollsters sell us Biden and Trump are tied at 45?
Bravo Sierra.
Former VP Mike Pence is tilting at 30 year old windmills trying to rebrand the GOP as the Party of Reagan. Here is his op-ed in the WSJ The Republican Time for Choosing Voters need to reject populism unmoored from conservative principles. Imagine if he had been…VICE PRESIDENT. Too little, too late…Maybe Pence has a future as a voice over for one of the sleep apps, but he does NOT have a future in the Oval Office.
A more accurate description of the political zeitgeist is captured by Matt Taibbi in his recent column: Campaign 2024: Not Left Versus Right, But Affluent Versus Everyone Else The realignment of major parties away from blue against red and toward a rich versus poor dynamic is America's most undercovered political story
American politics has long been a careful truce, in which natural economic tensions were obscured by an elegantly phony two-party structure that kept urban and rural poor separate, nurtured a politically unadventurous middle class, and tended to needs of the mega-rich no matter who won. That system is in collapse. Voters are abandoning traditional blue-red political identities and realigning according to more explosive divisions based on education and income.
Don’t believe Taibbi (or me) ? Check out this graph from the St. Louis Fed on real weekly earnings growth vs GDP growth since 1980.
Which is why Oliver Anthony’s song “Rich Men North of Richmond” went viral.
“overtime hours and bull shit pay…”
Joe Rogan had him on his #1 podcast recently. Here’s a You Tube clip:
Speaking of calling Bravo Sierra…
The University of Montana is offering a new class: UM COURSE TEACHES STUDENTS HOW TO CUT THE B.S. OUT OF B.S.
An online course, Calling Bullshit examines why it’s so easy to spread misinformation and untruths and why it’s so hard to combat it, while exploring what citizens can do to become better consumers and producers of factual information.
“The name is definitely provocative, but the class is not about the cussword,” said course instructor Professor Lee Banville, director of UM’s School of Journalism. “It’s about information literacy. People need to be both better sharers of information and better consumers of information.
Actually, is a renamed course. The previous name was News Literacy.
While the football season has kicked off, don’t forget the US Open finals this weekend. American Ben Shelton faces Novak Djokovic today at 3pm. Djokovic will be favored BUT Shelton does have a serve that reaches 149 MILES AN HOUR:
149 mph. Even his opponents applaud.
Remember the blind Muslim girl from Indonesia who came to America to compete in last season’s America’s Got Talent? Putri Ariani returned to ABSOLUTELY CRUSH U2’s “Still Haven’t Found What I'm Looking For”
U2 specifically cleared Putri to sing their song.
Yeah, that blind Muslim girl from Indonesia comes to America.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, another reaction video to Oliver Anthony. This one is approaching 2MM views.
Generational change is coming.
60 years ago it was Bob Dylan:
Robert Allen Zimmerman is now 82 and the Rolling Stones just released a new album. Mick Jagger recently turned 80.
and for Nikki Haley’s CNN numbers:
Stevie Nicks is 75.