I’m not much of a gambling man; however, I would take a flyer on one of those “predictive markets” like Kalshi or Polymarket that President Trump will declare a National Security Emergency and open up Alaskan energy and mineral resources.
(Reminder - those predictive markets ARE gambling)
Why the Emergency Declaration?
It makes too much sense for this president who was elected on an American First platform to continue to have our energy prices and the global economy subject to the whims of Iranian leaders who refer to us a Satan.
Plus, it’s also totally on brand for Trump.
Audacity! The guy’s brand is audacity, right?
“L’audace, l’audace, toujours, l’audace!” - Frederick the Great
Why get involved in another protracted war in the Middle East?
Iran’s military has been brutally degraded and their only play is to put a hose crimp on oil and natural gas coming out of the Persian Gulf, right?
Drive up prices and put pressure on Trump and the GOP in the midterms. Makes perfect sense. They can then try to regroup and put down any attempts to overthrow the regime.
The key for Iran is getting their own oil to their customers. That’s the ONLY thing that keeps their economy and repressive regime in business.
Next obvious step for Trump since he politically should not put boots on the ground? Take away Iran’s customers.
But how?
With Alaskan energy.
The current time line to develop Alaska is just short of FOR EVER given all the permitting layers in the federal bureaucracy and the obvious endless lawsuits from environmental organizations which clearly prefer Iranian oil to American.
Enter the Trump Pen (now available on QVC) which will sign an emergency declaration that bypasses all the federal permits. That would be far more likely to withstand the federal judiciary than say tariffs.
Granted it will take a very long time to get those resources to market, but the resulting shift in energy markets is just too geopolitically, and economically, appealing.
In the meantime, Shiite Iran will try to keep the Hormuz Hose Crimp going but their regional adversaries - all Sunnis - will then be called on to topple the Iranian regime.
Trump card played.
THE WHY:
Alaska Energy Development & Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Impact
Alaska holds one of the largest undeveloped energy resource bases in the United States.
If oil, natural gas, LNG export infrastructure, and critical minerals were fully developed, Alaska could become a major Pacific-facing energy hub supplying Indo-Pacific economies.
This would diversify energy supply for U.S. allies, reduce reliance on Middle Eastern and Russian energy, and strengthen U.S. strategic influence in the region.
Scale of Alaska Energy Resources
≈3.4 billion barrels of currently proved crude oil reserves.
≈24 billion barrels of technically recoverable offshore oil estimated in the Alaska Outer Continental Shelf.
More than 300 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas resources across proven and technically recoverable estimates.
Major North Slope gas concentrations include Prudhoe Bay (~26 Tcf) and Point Thomson (~8 Tcf).
LNG Export Opportunity
Proposed Alaska LNG capacity: ~20 million metric tons per year (~3–3.5 Bcf/day).
Primary target buyers include Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asian economies.
Shipping routes from Alaska to North Asia are significantly shorter than those from the U.S. Gulf Coast.
A single Alaska LNG project could supply a meaningful share of gas imports for several North Asian economies.
Critical Minerals & Metals
≈$4 billion in annual metal production already occurs in Alaska.
Red Dog Mine is the largest zinc producer in the United States.
Alaska is the only U.S. source of germanium used in semiconductor and fiber‑optic manufacturing.
Graphite Creek is one of the largest known graphite deposits in North America.
Additional prospects include copper, cobalt, rare earth elements, and gold.
Asian Reliance on Middle Eastern Oil
Japan imports roughly 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
South Korea imports about 70–75% of its crude oil from Middle Eastern producers.
India receives roughly 55–60% of its crude oil imports from the Middle East.
China imports about 45–50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
Taiwan imports roughly 70–75% of its crude oil from Middle Eastern sources.
Asian Reliance on Middle Eastern LNG
Qatar is one of the largest LNG suppliers to Japan, South Korea, India, and China.
Several Indo‑Pacific LNG buyers rely heavily on Gulf suppliers due to long‑term contracts.
Japan and South Korea remain among the largest LNG importers in the world, with a significant share coming from Qatar.
India increasingly relies on LNG imports from Qatar and Oman.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Implications
Diversifies Asian energy supply away from Middle Eastern geopolitical risk.
Reduces vulnerability to maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Strengthens energy security for U.S. allies including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Enhances U.S. strategic presence in the Pacific economy.
Creates greater LNG market competition with exporters such as Qatar and Australia.
Key Constraints to Development
Federal permitting and leasing policies.
Pipeline construction connecting North Slope gas to LNG export terminals.
Liquefaction infrastructure and Arctic port capacity.
Large capital investment requirements.
Environmental review processes and litigation timelines.
Conclusion:
Alaska’s resource base provides the foundation for a Pacific-facing energy hub.
If infrastructure and policy conditions allow full development, Alaska could play a significant role in strengthening Indo-Pacific energy security while reinforcing the United States’ strategic economic position in the region.