Poll Breakdown - Trump Leads Biden +3.7, CNU has Youngkin -2 and Biden -13 in Virginia.
Not much has changed since the election and that's not good news for Democrats.
Headline Washington Post :
Poll finds Youngkin underwater with Virginia voters, who veer to his left on major issues
True.
After one month in office Governor Glenn Youngkin’s numbers, according to Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center, are 41% approve to 43% disapprove or -2.
**Programming note - CNU’s Dr. Quentin Kidd will join Virginia FREE via Zoom this Friday at 2pm to discuss their recent poll.
Click here to join that ZOOM at 2pm. #FridayNotNow. Note the time change!
Okay.
It was a tight election with a narrow margin of victory for Youngkin and one would imagine tight numbers just three months later. The CNU poll had a MOE (margin of error) of 4.2% and the polling was done over two weeks. So Youngkin is basically within the Margin and has been for months - including on Election Day.
Not trying to throw water on the “underwater with Virginia voters” headline, but the article also noted that President Joe Biden’s numbers in the Commonwealth were 40% approve and 53% disapprove or -13%.
More that SIX times worse than Youngkin’s numbers, but the headline goes to…Youngkin being underwater?
Snoop?
Well, if Youngkin is underwater, Biden is pulling an Ethan Hunt trying to find the escape hatch in Mission Impossible Rogue Nation:
Look, here’s the deal…
It’s bad for the President and that’s not good for the country or freedom or democracy. Period.
We never want our presidents to fail. Well, at least I don’t and have said so consistently. It’s just not good.
Looking further into the CNU Wason Center poll, let’s remember some things.
Things change, but polls always matter because they can change or continue political behaviors. And never ever ever say “it’s still early” when it comes to polling. Bad polling brings bad fundraising and depresses the base.
This time last year CNU had Youngkin in 4th place in the GOP nomination, Winsome Earle-Sears, and Jason Miyares both in 3rd place in their respective nominations. How’d it go? It changed.
The Right Track/Wrong Track in 2021 was 47-41 and today it is 45-41. *Dramatic pause* *cue gasp*. Not.
The trend line is NOT GOOD for Democrats. At all. See charts below.
Biden is 40-53 overall in Virginia. Independents? POTUS is at 29-61 or (-32). Underwater? Hugging the drain is more accurate. MINUS 32.
Did someone say Independents? Youngkin is ahead with Independents 42-36 with 22% undecided. That 22 is a big number here. Basically, the Governor hasn’t moved from the election. Not underwater as much as holding serve. To keep the metaphors consistent - he’s treading water and pretty comfortably at that. Since he’s ahead with Independents by 6, he’s not even politically close to gasping for air. It’s helps to be able to stand in the 6 ft end of the pool.
The BIG change overall, in my opinion, is the structural party shift from 2021 to 2022. Democrats had a 13 point preference a year ago but now only have a 6 point lead. It went from 38-25-34 (D - R - I) to 33-27-33. Are we close to Trump Status Quo Ante? Uh…no. But picking up 7 points ain’t nothin’…
Even with changes occurring at the national level that negatively impact the Democratic brand in Virginia, they still lead the GOP by 6 points. So, Virginia GOPers - check your enthusiasm. Which they have done for the most part, because…
EVEN with the best possible environment, the most diverse and most talented statewide ticket with the best funding in their history, Republicans managed to just barely win in 2021. However…
These charts (thanks Gallup and Real Clear Politics) show just how brutal 2022 could be for the Democrats. Biden is now losing to Trump (+3.7) in the RCP average and the GOP is up 4.5 nationally.
Biden approval rating down 16 points and steady in low 40s for six months running.
Down 21 points among Democrats and 26 among Indies.
Did someone say UNDER WATER? Look at this issue set:
Losing to…Trump? Well, right at the MOE anyway.
Not only are Democrats losing to Republicans, but the GOP is touching 50 already.
Bottom line with the CNU poll?
Not much has changed at all here in Virginia and that’s bad news for Democrats heading into the Congressional midterms. Headlines notwithstanding.
Recent Virginia In Politics Podcasts include Delegate Vivian Watts.
And former AP reporter Bob Lewis on all things media and politics. Excellent discussion.