Poll - Kiggans/Luria Tied; Ides of October breaking to GOP?
Two maybe three tight Congressional races in Virginia.
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For all the Sturm und Drang about democracy dying here in the States United, we sure don’t lack supply.
That’s especially true here in Election Nerd Disneyland a.k.a the Commonwealth of Virginia where we have elections of consequence every year.
Here’s a CNN headline and linked article: Why very high turnout is likely this midterm
And one from ABC Early vote count surpasses ordinary midterm turnout
Another regarding the election in the Peach State - Georgia voters are breaking early voting records but MSNBC warns Beware the GOP’s spin on Georgia’s massive voter turnout numbers Georgia Republicans are touting record-breaking early voting in the midterms as a sign of a thriving democracy. Not so fast.
If democracy is dying (it’s not BTW), why are so many people showing up to vote?
Maybe there’s a political version of Newton Law of Motion Numero Tres - for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. The massive global political realignment continues and will be measured over decades, not days. #ChinaSeesUkraine
Full scene - Monty Python Constitutional Peasants also posted below.
Demos = people + Kratia = rule = Democracy. The people rule.
How about Virginia?
I’m hearing the Early Voting (EV) in Virginia Beach is tracking Glenn Youngkin’s performance in the 2nd Congressional District. So, that’s probably good news for State Senator Jen Kiggans and less so for Congresswomen Elaine Luria.
The latest from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center poll from VA 2
It’s TIED - 45 all and CNU weighted the poll against the 2021 election. CNU has Luria leading among Indies by 3 BUT President Biden’s job approval in VA 2 is way underwater 36-58. It’s going to be tough swimming for Luria to stay ahead with Independents with that Biden millstone weighing her down.
Youngkin won the 2nd 55-44 over Terry McAuliffe while Biden was net negative 8 points last year. This year Biden is 11 points net negative nationally and negative 14 points in VA 2 or 41-55.
45-45 with 8 undecided over Oct 12-18. Good news for Luria is that the race is tied, the bad news for Luria - she (the incumbent) is at 45. Good news for Kiggans is that undecideds are likely to break for Republicans this year.
How about the 7th CD (Spanberger v Vega)? It’s close. Probably inside the Margin of Error given all the ads bombing the airwaves.
How about the 10th CD (Wexton v Cao)? Cao is apparently closing there as well. Watch for late spending dumps. RCP moved it to LEAN DEMOCRAT from Likely.
As I stated last week, there is a point in the election cycle where undecideds decide and it’s usually around the Ides of October or 10/15. Yes, there are more months with Ides than just March. And lo…
Speaking of lacking supply to meet demand…
A big problem that has been nagging voters all year is gas prices. Check out the WAPO chart tracking gas price correlation to Joe Biden’s approval ratings.
Pretty close to the National Generic Ballot for Democrats as well.
Here’s the WAPO article on Gas Prices & Biden and a really interesting? paragraph within:
I’ll hasten to note that correlation isn’t causation. Just because Biden’s approval rose as prices dropped doesn’t mean prices caused the drop. But it seems safe to assume some relationship, particularly given how often pollsters found that Americans were worried about energy prices as they expressed disapproval of Biden.
Overheard at the WAPO water cooler:
#Denial ain’t no river, it’s a state.
Aaannnd I just can’t this tune and video out of my head!
Classic weekend prep.
