Polling Breakdown, Early Campaign Messaging, and Turnout Drop Off
Virginia's Bellwether 2021 elections will point the way of the 2022 midterms.
Campaigns are won in the beginning, not the end.
Today at Noon, Virginia FREE hosts our Virginia FREE Fridays via Zoom.
Last week, we broke down our ranking of the 29 announced statewide candidates for the Big Three offices in under 29 minutes.
This week, we will be looking at early campaign messaging and matching that up with recent public polling - including from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center. Click here for part 2 of their survey which focuses on COVID.
We had an all star line up of attendees from around the Commonwealth last Friday and you are welcome to attend.
Click here at Noon to join Virginia FREE Fridays.
Reminder on Voter Turnout in recent Virginia Bellwether elections:
2009 - 40%
2013 - 43%
2016 - Trump elected
2017 - 47%
2020 - Trump unelected.
2021 - Turnout? I’m putting the Over/Under at 43.5 for now.
Lower turnout modeling shows the higher potential political impact of legislative decision making.
For instance, in a lower turnout model how do legislators decide to vote on federal tax conformity? Not exactly the hot button of other social issues, but very dangerous nonetheless.
No, Virginia CPAs don’t rally on Capitol Square holding aloft their calculators chanting:
WHAT DO WE WANT!
FEDERAL TAX CODE CONFORMITY!
WHEN DO WE WANT IT??
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE SO WE CAN TELL OUR CLIENTS WHAT TO EXPECT IN THIS YEAR’S FILINGS BECAUSE RIGHT NOW WE DON’T KNOW WHAT TO TELL THEM!
BUT when you realize there are 20,000+ CPAs in the Commonwealth talking to just about every tax payer (hundreds of thousands), then you see the potential political impact.
Do people actually vote on that?
By itself, no.
If, however, it adds to a narrative that builds on top of a botched but improving vaccine rollout, school re-opening misfire, and an uptick in any negative social marker like violent crime data, then you have a potential problem/opportunity.
Throw in some unforeseeable events from Washington DC and all hell can break loose very quickly.
Some people will vote for change and other voters just won’t vote at all. Swing voters still swing - recall Maine’s Susan Collins and Virginia Beach’s Bobby Dyer.
Campaign themes usually come down to less than five words.
2008 - “Hope and Change”
2009 - “Bob’s for Jobs”
2013 - McAuliffe’s focus on “Jobs”
2016 - “Drain the Swamp” “Make America Great Again” versus “I’m With Her” (Gawd awful theme btw)
2020 - “Build Better Back” not exactly a great theme versus Biden selling “Not him” reality show.
2021 - Try distilling down what’s happening in America to less than five words. It’s actually pretty easy.
Just five words is all it takes “You can’t handle the truth!” which led to “You’re goddamn right I did!”