Preview & Predictions - Tuesday's Special Elections
Big ones on Florida and Wisconsin
Theme of tonight’s results:
In America, we vote against.
Preview:
1. Florida's 1st Congressional District Special Election
This election is to replace Republican Matt Gaetz, who resigned in November 2024 after being nominated by President-elect Donald Trump for U.S. Attorney General (he later withdrew from consideration). The district, with a strong Republican lean (R+19 partisan index), held its primary on January 28, 2025.
2. Florida's 6th Congressional District Special Election
This seat became vacant when Republican Michael Waltz resigned on January 20, 2025, to serve as Trump’s National Security Advisor. With a partisan index of R+14, this district also had its primary on January 28, 2025.
3. Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
A nonpartisan election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court is occurring, with the primary held on February 18, 2025, narrowing the field. The general election on April 1 will determine whether liberals or conservatives maintain control of this key battleground state’s highest court, as incumbent Ann Walsh Bradley is not seeking re-election.
These elections are significant as they could influence the U.S. House’s slim Republican majority and the ideological balance of Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.
Predictions:
Republicans will hold Florida 1st and 6th Districts, but underperform the partisan index.
Susan Crawford will win the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin.
Why?
These are the first major elections after the Trump Administration took office in January and Democrats will be far more motivated than the Republicans who won in November.
Just 71 days ago.
It’s that simple. The enthusiasm and intensity have changed. Democrats are angry and Republicans are happy.
Who shows up more today? Democrats.
The gaps for the Republicans in the FL 1 and FL 6 are just too big to overcome, but Wisconsin is a statewide race that Trump won by less than 1% or about 29,000 votes.
All of the races have been nationalized and usually that’s not good for recently elected parties.
That’s American politics.
We vote against.
And cheer for the underdog.
No offense to all the Duke/Lakers/Cowboys/Yankees fans out there.
It’s just who we are.
Ask a Brit.
Always be the Rebel Alliance.
Always.