Rich Strike, Roe, Recession, and James Bond.

Hey - it's been one heckuva week! Again.

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First things first - If you have not watched the aerial view of last week’s Kentucky Derby, take 54 seconds to watch and hear the call of Rich Strike’s historic victory. It’s thrilling. Chills. every. time.

I should leave this week’s newsletter here and just make that required viewing, but alas - politics.

We are now ten days post the SCOTUS Leak heard ‘round the world and the initial public polling is not showing much movement. The cross tabs on the abortion are starting to show usable data but the question will be, in November, to what end?

The issue is moving up the ranks of important issues according to the recent Monmouth poll which was in the field just two days after The Leak hit.

One can clearly see the impact in Issue Importance. But look at where it likely came from - Health Care. A key question will be - does the issue last or fade away over the summer and into the fall?

I’m not so sure it will last given the underlying economic conditions. Just about everyone has an opinion on abortion and what they think they know about Roe v Wade.

Take a look deeper in the Monmouth poll:

I would like to see those cross tabs to see how it breaks out as far as intensity goes in changing votes or driving turn out; however, pay attention to the words and images used by candidates and campaigns to hear/see for yourself. Messaging will likely change after primary season.

My sense is that you will start seeing the conversation turn to where the people actually are on the issue. We’re a representative democracy and our elected officials are, by definition, representatives.

Reminder - they are not elected to lead. It’s not the House of Leaders, it’s the House of…Representatives. Want better representatives? Be a better person is my suggestion.

End Reminder.

And we’re back…

SO where are people on the issue? Divided. Deeply. Per Monmouth:

Another Reminder to READ the column in The Atlantic by Jonathan Haidt:

WHY THE PAST 10 YEARS OF AMERICAN LIFE HAVE BEEN UNIQUELY STUPID - It's not just a phase

Bumpersticker Version? Social Media Sucks, Put Down Your Phone.

(yes, that goes for me…Stop yelling…You’re literally screaming.)

This summer the Big R word will likely not be Roe, but Recession. The U.S. economy shrank 1.4% in the first quarter of the year but analysts paint a rebound this quarter with a more likely recession in late 2023 and early 2024.

From the CNBC article linked above:

“This is noise; not signal. The economy is not falling into recession,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Net trade has been hammered by a surge in imports, especially of consumer goods, as wholesalers and retailers have sought to rebuild inventory. This cannot persist much longer, and imports in due course will drop outright, and net trade will boost GDP growth in Q2 and/or Q3.”

BUT

Goldman Sachs sees about a 35% chance of negative growth a year from now. In a forecast that is an outlier on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank sees the chance of a “significant recession” hitting the economy in late 2023 and early 2024, the result of a Fed that will have to tighten much more to tamp down inflation than forecasters currently anticipate.

The purpose of this newsletter, The Intersection, is to get the political and business communities to see where they intersect in order to produce better results for all.

Or as my paternal grandmother would say shaking her head disapprovingly:

Lord knows I tried.

So let’s game out 2022 rolling into the mid terms.

EVEN IF we don’t go into a full blown recession, just the conversation hurts any incumbent and Heaven help you if you are in the majority. EVEN IF it ain’t your fault, it’s your responsibility - so get cracking or get packing. (Good line that one - no attribution necessary.)

Same Monmouth Poll. Biden crossed into Negative Land in late August right about the time US gas prices crested $3.00 a gallon and the withdrawal Afghanistan occurred.

Now? Gas is knocking on the door of $4.50 a gallon nationwide and he’s underwater by nearly 20 in Monmouth and 11 in the Real Clear Politics Average. Reminder the chart is from Election Day 2020 forward.

So the trend line is horrible for Joe Biden and by extension the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. Cue scene from Airplane!

So, what to do about gas prices? Cue headline from the Washington Post :

Biden pulls 3 offshore oil lease sales, curbing new drilling this year

With the nationwide offshore drilling program expiring at the end of June, oil companies and climate activists face uncertainty over the future of leasing

What does the market HATE? Uncertainty.

From the article:

While President Biden has spoken in recent weeks about the need to supply oil and gas to Europe so those nations can stop importing energy from Russia in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the move would mark a victory for climate activists intent on curbing U.S. fossil fuel leasing.

and

Still, Republican lawmakers have seized on the issue as a way to direct Americans’ frustration over rising prices at the White House.

Think the GOP will run ads about cancelling the Keystone Pipeline, bleeding down the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, and bludgeoning the Mountain Valley Pipeline?

No recession is coming you say? mmmkay.

A Rich Strike comeback for the Democrats is highly unlikely this year so let’s roll into 2023.

When do Republican candidates first hit the presidential debate stage? Summer of 2023. (Read quotes again from CNBC on likelihood of recession Q3 and Q4 ‘23) First primaries Q1 ‘24.

When do they start preparing? November 2020, but for public consumption this time next year.

How’s Donald Trump looking these days you ask?

Looking like a lot of GOP + Lean Voters are looking to make a change.

That lines up with what I hear from 2016/2020 Trump voters who say - with conviction- they’re done with him and will be looking for other candidates to take up the policies versus the problems that our past president presents.

Then again, this time last year few saw the Virginia elections turning out the way they did.

Lesson? It ain’t over until it’s over. Ask the Rich Strike owners or Glenn Youngkin.

Politics is never over…ever.

And thank God for it.

Seriously - watch that Derby finish by Rich Strike and see you at 3pm.

Netflix recommendation Operation Mincemeat. Good movie and true story of the British deception of the Germans who ended up thinking the Allied invasion of southern Europe would occur in Greece not Sicily. And who played a role in Operation Mincemeat (movie and real life)?

Ian Fleming. Yes, the creator of James Bond 007. (Didn’t think I’d get here did ya? Thanks for sticking around! Here’s your participation trophy:

On Hold Video Top Ten Bond Songs