The First Week of 2021. It's a Doozie.

"Watch out for that first step, it's a doozie!"

Many blessings to you and yours as we transition out of the holidays.

Prayers up for the soul of State Senator Ben Chafin and for the peace of his family as Chafin passed away over the weekend due to COVID. All of the tributes to Senator Chafin were remarkably consistent - he was a fine man who cared deeply for Southwest Virginia, served honorably, was good humored, a person of deep faith, and that he would be genuinely missed.

Chafin’s life set a great example that was echoed broadly in both parties. I hope that example sets in - deeply.

The danger of the pandemic was brought closer to our home as my wife tested positive for COVID on Christmas Eve and we went into lockdown. Remarkably, it didn’t transfer to anyone else in the house.

She was blessed with very mild symptoms, but the juxtaposition to Senator Chafin was not lost.

Three lessons - 1) Caring for others is the highest calling 2) Soups go along way to feeding a house full of people who can’t leave and 3)The Sopranos - on HBO Max - is brilliant.

Please be safe out there - take vitamins and supplements (we take a ton), wear masks, social distance, and wash your hands.

Now, back to The Intersection of politics and business:

Unlike Ned “Needle Nose” Ryerson who warns Bill Murray’s Phil Connors in “Groundhog Day” after the fact that he’s about to step into a deep puddle, I told you this week was going to be yuge/bigly/controversial.

And that was BEFORE President Trump called the Georgia Secretary of State on Saturday.

Here is the full audio call of that:

Here is the written transcript: CLICK HERE to read it in full.

First up we had the election of Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House.

I said there was a good chance that she would not win. How close was it?

The vote on Sunday caps off an intense behind-the-scenes lobbying blitz over the last several weeks by Pelosi, 80, and her allies to secure full support within the caucus, including from some longtime outspoken critics of the speaker. Senior Democrats were painstakingly managing attendance up until the final hours — even reaching out to offices multiple times to confirm lawmakers would be present.

In the end, Democrats had only one absence — 84-year-old Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), who is battling pancreatic cancer. Two Republicans weren’t present to vote — Reps.-elect David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who both tested positive for the coronavirus in recent days.

Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, who also tested positive for the coronavirus recently, was cleared from quarantine at midnight and traveled to Washington to cast her vote.

Pelosi successfully flipped several of the Democratic defectors who didn’t support her 2019 effort, including Reps. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.), Ron Kind (D-Wisc.), Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.).

Tomorrow, Georgia has the two runoff elections to determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Virginia has two special elections as well on Tuesday. They will be closely watched for voter enthusiasm heading into this year’s gubernatorial cycle. Pay close attention to the race in House District 2 between Democrat Candi King and Republican Heather Mitchell. It’s a toss up.

On Wednesday, the Joint Session of Congress will convene to certify the Electoral College. Here is a quick link to that process.

No one expects the events of Wednesday to change the outcome of the Electoral College and Joe Biden will be certified as President-elect.

That’s a fairly easy prediction to make.

What’s not nearly as easy to predict is what’s going to happen in 2021, but I think it will be “a doozie” for several reasons.

1. We’re still in the midst of this pandemic.

2. Yes, there are vaccines being distributed but it sure doesn’t seem like that process has been well communicated. Probably because it hasn't. That will continue to erode trust in our government leaders and institutions especially since they were given so much lead time to get a plan in place. At a bare minimum, the people should know what is going on and, frankly, we don’t.

3. The two main political parties are completely unable to work together even during a crisis like this. One would think that during an emergency, leaders would be able to put down disagreements and solve the problem. Alas, they can’t even agree on the problem. Quick reminder - elected representatives are just that. By definition, they are not leaders. They merely represent. Want better representatives? Be better people.

4. The economy is being kept afloat by an enormous amount of debt. As Phil Gramm and Mike Solon write in today’s WSJ : “With Treasury debt already set to reach 108% of GDP, and Fed assets to finance that debt already 7.8 times the precrisis level in 2008, it isn’t a question of if government is going to run out of other people’s money, but when.”

5. Steve Pearlstein wonders in his 2021 prediction column in the Washington Post: “There is, however, one interest group that has both the clout and the incentive to liberate us from unsatisfying political equilibrium and create the political space for moderates of both parties to come together. The only question is whether big business will have the courage to do it.”

6. The amazing resilience and speed of the free enterprise system will blow us away in 2021. So many big decisions will be made, but not as quick as the 2020 survival instinct based ones; however, these could be the ones that change our culture and politics even more dramatically than post market crash of 2008-09.

7. Because we are so divided as a nation and transitioning a new government, we are very vulnerable to “enemies, foreign and domestic” as the phrase goes.

8. Hill Street Blues’ Sgt. Phil Esterhaus has the call: Hey, let’s be careful out there.