The Impacts of Biden's Blunder in Afghanistan on federal spending bills and Virginia's 2021 elections.

Has the tide shifted or accelerated?

In politics, and life, it’s not so much what you do that matters, but the manner in which you do it.

Joe Biden’s decision to pull our troops out of Afghanistan has quickly impacted federal legislation. It could also begin to turn the tide of Virginia’s 2021 election which until now has seen very little movement at the top of the ticket.

Joe Biden November 7, 2020 from his address entitled A Presidency for All Americans.

I sought this office to restore the soul of America. 

To rebuild the backbone of the nation — the middle class. 

To make America respected around the world again and to unite us here at home.

How’s it going?

Nearly 70% of Americans are united about Joe Biden's handling of Afghanistan - they disapprove.

His approval rating in Real Clear Politics was at 50% before the images of chaos, confusion, and collapse from Kabul were imprinted in our minds forever.

Then came the commentary and analysis. Oy. Universally negative and relentless.

It’s rare that I watch cable news but rarer still that there is cable news consensus. Nearly ALL the major cable outlets and their guests were united in placing the unfolding events in Afghanistan squarely on the shoulders of Joe Biden and his administration.

To make their case all they had to do was play the recent videos of Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and the generals. They said it wasn’t going to happen like this. But it did. And it’s bad.

As Matt Taibbi wrote Afghanistan: We Never Learn - As the Taliban waltzes into Kabul, the look of surprise on the faces of top officials should frighten us most of all

Two weeks ago knowledgable people like former National Security Adviser General H.R. McMaster were warning How to Avert Disaster in Afghanistan - The least the U.S. can do is offer air support, intel and ensure proper logistics and maintenance contracting.

That op-ed opened thusly:

The situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating rapidly. As the U.S. and its international partners withdrew military forces over the past few months, the Taliban roughly tripled the territory under its control. If the U.S. and allies don’t take urgent action, the world will bear witness to a disaster.

And then Biden’s speech to the nation. The buck stops here but I blame everyone else and it was the right decision? I was bound by Donald Trump’s deal? How’s that for tall in the saddle?

C’mon, man.

Try “This is on me. I’m going to fix it.” That’s taking responsibility.

Not Joe Biden. He finished his excuse laden address and went directly to get on Marine One headed back to Camp David, not the Oval Office.

Biden was (rightly or wrongly) instantly compared to Neville Chamberlain and Jimmy Carter. Kabul was Saigon 2.0.

After voting as a United States Senator for the Iraq Liberation Act in 1998 and to Authorize Use of Military Force in September 2001 (unanimous in Senate) and Authorize Use of Military Force in Iraq 2002 (77-23), it’s hard to watch an American president so quickly try to pin this on anyone else but himself.

This was Joe Biden’s decision and his alone.

And then he left the White House. He visually left his post. Horrible optics. Leaving us with an image of an old, tired, frail, and defeated America reflecting back to us what we might actually be - a nation in decline or at least in need of memory care.

That’s bad leadership.

Worse is the word on everyone’s mind - weakness.

The going got tough and the man walked past the helm heading for the exit.

Here’s how I think this some of this will play out politically at home.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi knows she has a massive problem on her hands and will move quickly to pass the two massive spending bills. I think the House Democrats get that done and things get messed up in the Senate. That may give the House members enough political cover to get through the primaries largely unscathed.

Politics is a lot like NCAA March Madness - survive and advance.

Look at today’s Wall Street Journal reporting on the bills with this quote from Congressman Jim Clyburn speaking on a conference call with House Democrats:

“I would hope that none of us, that none of us, would do or say anything that would jeopardize passing these bills. These bills are critical for us maintaining our majority, and that must reign supreme,” Democratic Whip James Clyburn (D., S.C.) told members on a Tuesday telephone call, according to a person listening to it

What must reign supreme? Reigning. Reigning is supreme. Always remember that quote from Clyburn.

The guy who saved Biden in South Carolina is hoping no one says or does anything to jeopardize, not the legislation and all the good they are purported to do but, their majority. Pelosi and Clyburn are circling the wagons.

Then the bills go back to the Senate where that chamber will fulfill its constitutional role and slow things down. But the House Democrats will have survived this round and advanced one day closer to the primaries. Every day closer to an election without primary opposition is a day closer to victory for incumbents.

Remember the political clock. It never stops.

CLEARLY there will be zero help from the GOP.

Can you imagine Biden asking aloud:

Where’s my good friend, Mitch? Maybe he can help!

The reality is that the votes were going to be hard to come by anyway and the Afghan debacle could kill both plans in the end.

I see smaller versions eventually passing but not before Democrats start to turn on each other. Republicans are politically wise to stay out of this fight.

Moderate and centrist Democrats look at their districts. How are we going to survive NOT passing those spending plans AND eating this back home? Do we lose a primary to the Bernie Bros or lose the general in my swing district? *drink*

That’s next year, but decisions about the 2022 campaigns are being made now and just when the new redistricting numbers are being released. *drink*

Yes, congressional districts are changing. Members of Congress will have new voters who don’t know them. That means even more campaign work at home while they are working longer hours in Washington trying to “get stuff done” so they can campaign on something positive. And let’s not forget the daily dialing for dollars.

That’s why Pelosi is smartly trying to get them to pass the bills and soon. She needs to keep the team together. They have a very narrow majority so their choice is to hang together or hang separately.

The Democrats will hang together.

Now throw in inflation, that the extra unemployment benefit is ending in two weeks, the eviction moratorium being extended, rising COVID case loads, rising crime rates, and whatever may come next week.

Yeah, they pass these bills. They have to be seen doing something. It changes the narrative from Afghanistan Charlie Foxtrot to more happy pills on the company credit card.

*checks notes* rebuild middle class - restore soul of America - respect around the world.

The Afghanistan Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is bad and it won’t blow over anytime soon if people are already comparing it to Neville Chamberlain, Saigon ‘75, and Jimmy Carter.

And just what do you think cable news programming will be for awhile? All this and all the time. That’s largely because their ratings have been off since Trump lost the election.

But wait! What about the COVID Delta Variant thing? Will that be a thing for awhile?

Nate Silver over at 538 explores that:

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's this notion that it's only a matter of time before Delta explodes in other parts of the US as much as it has in the South but I don't see why that's obviously true. Case growth has slowed down in all four regions as compared with 2/3 weeks ago.

Let’s take a look at how it is likely to impact the Virginia elections this fall.

Before the Kabul Collapse/Biden Blunder, the Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin campaigns for governor saw six public polls average out to 46.5 to 43.2 in favor of McAuliffe. A 3.3% margin is just under the Margins of Error (MOE). While one can suggest that the race is tied, it’s more like a Slight Lean Democratic race. The polls have been pretty consistent. Some might say stuck.

While McAuliffe stubbornly tops out at 47-48, Republican statewide peaks since Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide were Mitt Romney’s 47.2 in 2012 and Ed Gillespie’s 48.3 in 2014. Since then? Trump 44 in 2016, Gillespie 45 in 2017, Corey Stewart 41 in 2018, and Trump 44 again in 2020.

Read that out 47 - 48 - 44 - 45 - 41 - 44 = 44.83.

Without Romney and Gillespie 1.0?

43.5

Where is Youngkin?

43.2 - but most people have not been paying attention so he’s actually in a better position especially with Trump not in the White House or on Twitter. So now people are starting to pay political attention and they see this debacle with the same party in control of Washington and Richmond.

Change as a theme becomes an easier sell.

Still with a 3 point lead for McAuliffe, Youngkin would have to win undecideds by about 65-35 to make up the difference.

On Monday, the Glenn Youngkin campaign released two new commercials about public safety and 50 sheriff endorsements. That was very timely given the events over the weekend and the heightened concerns about public safety and terrorism.

Across the state, candidates and consultants agree that the mood is very different than two and four years ago. Again the question is - How much?

If there was a 4 to 5 point generic ballot shift before all this broke out, that means that fifteen seats were already in play (close to or inside polling Margin of Error) due to the 2019 margins of victory being under 10 points. 10 - 5 = 5. Okay? 15 Democratic seats won by less than 10. Take away 5 points IF the generic ballot test polls are accurate.

That’s a big IF.

Take away those five points from 2019 results in the House races and the GOP picks up seven seats while putting eight more in play if they don’t lose any of their own.

Speaking of IFs - IF the reports I am hearing about incumbent name ID are accurate, the Trump Tsunami of ‘17 could be the Biden Rip Tide of ‘21.

Just gaming things out here as events warrant.

Events, dear boy, events - British PM Harold MacMillan (1957-63) on what impacts his administration the most

Having been elected in 2001, I can tell you that current events do have an impact. September 11th was a tremendous shock to the country and politically it more or less settled out by Election Day; however, that was largely due to the fact that the nation’s leaders came together. We were attacked. It was logical that we would reboot.

This could be different. We lost Afghanistan with humiliation. Very different. Especially given the Democrats early voting advantage. Enthusiasm matters for early voting. We’ll see how baked in those early voters really are for Democrats.

My sense is that the Afghanistan debacle will settle out here politically BUT - and this is a BIG BUT - there is a developing narrative that could do incredible damage to Democrats in Virginia and at the federal level.

This is all theirs. And everyone knows it.

Paid Subscribers and Virginia FREE members be on the lookout for the House of Delegates analysis and some really shocking trends I have picked up from my conversations around Virginia.

The bottom line is this - Virginia elections are always a bellwether.

2021 was already going to be a more difficult year for Virginia Democrats than the Trump Tsunami of ‘17 and their majority wins in 2019. The Virginia GOP was going to make gains. The questions have been - by how much and will it be enough to win the Executive Mansion and/or the House of Delegates?

That will be determined by the manner in which the parties conduct themselves given this recent turn of events along with the underlying problems at the national level.