The Race to Succeed Kirk Cox - Viva Las Vegas!

House District 66 is a Toss Up - for now. Place your bets - wisely.

There are only a handful of Open Seats in this year’s round of House races in Virginia and House District 66 is starting out as the most competitive.

Were incumbent delegate and former Speaker of the House Kirk Cox running again, he would increase his +4.5 point margin of victory from his 2019 race against Sheila Bynum-Coleman.

That House race was one of the most expensive in state history with over $3.5MM total spend. Cox spent over $2MM and Bynum-Coleman just over $1.5MM.

Reminder - the salary of for a member of the House of Delegates is $17,642 a year. Before taxes.

In the end, Cox prevailed 51.6 to 47 in a very good national environment for Democrats. With Donald Trump no longer providing Democratic turnout enthusiasm this year, I would figure adding three to five more points to Cox’s total due to his work ethic, name ID, and experience.

That probably would have been enough to keep the Democrats from spending $1.5MM here like they did in 2019. But given the money the Democrats have been raising lately they also might have had enough to burn here to keep it close in the hopes of a late breaking event that could push their candidate over the top. Call it having You Never Know Money. #LuxuryPolitics

All that said, House District 66 is far and away the closest race of the five open seats along with being the best chance for a Democratic pick up. Republicans really need to hold this seat in order to improve their odds of winning back the House of Delegates this year.

Right now - that’s a real possibility. They need six seats, but losing the 66th would mean, obviously, seven; however, if they lose here it means the national tidal shift wouldn’t have been enough to win the majority back anyway.

Given the national dynamics with Trump out of the White House and President Joe Biden’s numbers solidly under 50 at 48.3 in the Real Clear Politics average right now, Republicans will likely hold this seat but it won’t be without a fight.

Some polls have Biden as low as 44 in Virginia following the Kabul collapse.

If that’s accurate, the 66th will not be on the minds of Democrats come October.

Today, I rate this as a Toss Up race only because of the underlying dynamics of the district and the shifting national narrative. Things are just too uncertain right now.

Here are the recent elections:

2019 - Cox +4.6

2018 - Kaine +14

2017 - Northam +5, Fairfax +4, and Herring +4

2016 - Clinton 50-46

2014 - Warner +1

2013 - McAuliffe +2; Northam +14, and Obenshain v. Herring 50/50

Do you see the play here? 2-14-TIE? The year after Barack Obama won the White House again.

The two candidates here are Republican Mike Cherry and Democrat Katie Sponsler.

Early reports are that the GOP has the stronger candidate in Cherry, who in addition to currently serving on the Colonial Heights’ City Council, has been endorsed already by the Virginia Professional Fire Fighters - the state affiliate of the International Association of Fire Fighters.

That’s a pretty big tell in how this race is shaping up as Sponsler is far more pro-union on her website. If the Fire Fighters union supports the candidates with whom they have been working on city council over another candidate running as a union champion, it says to me that they not only like Cherry, but they think he’s going to win. Otherwise, why make the endorsement?

This is that local flavor you get from races like the 66th. I just don’t hear many great things about Sponsler and what I do see on social media is fairly combative for candidate in a heavy suburban vote/toss up House District. In the end, successful candidates reflect the district more than their opponents. Being seen and/or portrayed as out of touch with suburban realities could be the self inflicted political wound for Sponsler.

Some candidates just can’t get out of their own way. Sponsler might be one of them.

National narratives only get you but so much and the likability of candidates like Mike Cherry make a big difference in the end. So will Sponsler’s support of divisive issues like police reform. From her website:

We believe in reallocating police resources to provide proper support for our communities.

That’s going to be slapped on every mailer - “Sponsler advocates defending the police!” It would be political malpractice for Cherry to do otherwise. He already has the support of first responders in the fire fighters, Chesterfield Sheriff Karl Leonard, and Colonial Heights Police Chief Jeff Faries and CH’s Sheriff Todd Wilson.

Public safety could be a key swing issue and voter this cycle so a mailer with all of those endorsements will be an important messaging feature for Cherry. That issue alone could help Cherry erode enough suburban women support away from Sponsler for the win here.

The 66th demographics are roughly 1/3 black. If Cherry can pick up 20-25% of that vote by either voting for him or NOT voting for Sponsler, he could beat Cox’s 2019 margin. Given his role as a pastor, Cherry might be able to attract more conservative black voters who could be turned off by Sponsler’s aggressive progressive candidacy. Again, he probably doesn’t win a majority of the black vote, he just needs enough to either vote for him or NOT for Sponsler.

Terry McAuliffe will likely beat Glenn Youngkin in this recently redrawn district as have all the statewide Democratic candidates dating back at least a decade; however, Cherry has the inside lane over Sponsler.

*Note - the 66th numbers cited here have been updated to reflect past performance. #ThanksVPAPagain!

While I rate it now as a Toss Up, in the end the 66th will probably go to Cherry and the Republicans. I wouldn't go full Vegas on this one just yet, but the conditions are ripe for Cherry.

But but but but - the district will be redrawn again and who knows how this will impact the 66th. Sponsler seems to be a candidate committed to her issues and clearly has the passion to keep running.

This will be a door to door fight until November as long as Democrats fund Sponsler - which they might do for the next race and to also draw money away from races the Republicans need to win back the majority.

A great deal of political successes is determined by accurate allocation of money at the right time. Sponsler might draw enough fire for the Democrats to edge out other closer seats.

Las Vegas baby. Ya gotta be careful when you go to Vegas.

There are two images when it comes to betting in Vegas:

This one - glitzy and glamorous. Elvis. Sinatra. Cool and classy:

Or this one - when it seemed like a good idea at the time:

The Republicans hope pastor Mike Cherry can discern the difference.