Tonight's Gubernatorial Debate Preview
A lot is riding on this debate and not just in Virginia. #2022Midterms
Tonight’s Top of the Ticket Gubernatorial Debate is being hosted by the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce and will be broadcast on NBC 4 (presumably NBC affiliates) and Telemundo 44.
Tomorrow, the NOVA Chamber’s PAC meets to decide which of the state wide candidates they will endorse. Undoubtedly, the members of that PAC board have been heavily lobbied and are likely aware of the missteps by the US Chamber in the 2020 cycle.
The US Chamber bet heavy that Georgia would not flip both US Senate seats giving control of that chamber to the Democrats. Their endorsements of Democratic House incumbents came back to bite them since many of their endorsed candidates had voted for the PRO Act - an obviously ANTI business piece of legislation.
There is a lot riding on this debate for Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin; however, given Virginia’s proximity to the Washington DC this debate could impact TRILLIONS of federal spending as well.
From an excellent article in Politico:
President Joe Biden can’t afford Terry McAuliffe to lose the governor's race in Virginia — and the White House knows it.
It’s a scenario the president and his aides and close allies increasingly view as a real possibility, given tightening poll numbers in the race and signs of Democratic apathy.
Real Clear Politics puts the polling average at McAuliffe +2.9.
For those of you playing at home on the board version, 2.9% is inside the Margin of Error (MOE) in the polling. That means even more money is going to come flowing into the Commonwealth. Probably more money will be spent this year than any race in Virginia history.
Because this race is a Toss Up.
Let’s see what has been happening lately.
Another high profile national Democrat visited Virginia over the weekend trying to gin up support for the Democratic ticket. Senator Amy Klobuchar campaigned in…Arlington. That underlines the concerns Democrats have with the base of their party. If they are sending Amy Klobuchar to Arlington, that’s a problem. If she went to Virginia Beach or western Henrico that would been seen as favorable for Democratic chances this year.
Arlington went 80% for Biden and they need turn out/enthusiasm there?
We also saw an Axios article today about a shadowy political operation being conducted by a group trying to suppress pro-gun voters in western and southern parts of the Commonwealth.
One ad reads:
While the NRA backs Donald Trump, they REFUSED to endorse Glenn Youngkin. We can't trust Glenn Youngkin on guns.
Now we all know that Democrats NEVER EVER EVER suppress the vote especially after spending all that time and money decrying voter suppression tactics by the GOP. Something like this would be terribly off brand. Worse, it could back fire.
That’s not my point here - my point is that we are seeing higher levels of voter enthusiasm in rural Virginia and some group can ill afford for the GOP to run up the margins there. So, this kind of thing happens. But we don’t know who’s doing it. *WINK*
Given my extensive drive through the 5th and 6th Congressional Districts yesterday, I would say Democratic anxiety is justified. Youngkin’s ground game is impressive there. Yard signs and large posters supporting the GOP ticket are everywhere. EVERY. WHERE.
All that said, look for the candidates tonight to focus on getting their people to polls. Again - not a new strategy. But pay attention to the language they use. It will tell you what the polling and focus groups told them.
If McAuliffe goes heavy in mentioning Donald Trump and tying Youngkin to him, that’s because he needs to do so. That shows he has a turnout problem and that using Trump still works for that. He’ll probably also hit Youngkin on the Texas abortion bill and Youngkin’s near double dribble on the question if he would have voted to certify the 2020 election results. Youngkin did issue a statement clarifying he would have voted to certify the election.
McAuliffe will push heavy on vaccine mandates for specific sectors because polls show they are popular in Virginia while Youngkin will say he took the vaccine but people should make up their own minds. Youngkin might also make a play for natural immunity as a hedge in this space as more articles are popping up on that as a COVID mitigation strategy in order to become laser focused on those who are neither vaxxed nor COVID recovered.
Youngkin released the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement news today. So, look for him to focus on public safety issues, defunding the police, and McAuliffe’s position change on Qualified Immunity.
Just as McAuliffe will try to make trouble for Youngkin with his base on social issues like abortion and guns as well as Trump , so will Youngkin on QI, social justice issues, and maybe inherent problems with one party governance in Richmond like DMV, Employment Commission, Parole Board, and just recently bad press for the Department of Corrections.
Right to Work - with the NOVA Chamber endorsement on the line, expect Youngkin to press that issue.
Polling shows that Youngkin does better with voters on taxes and since the messaging from Washington is focused on how to tax and spend $3,500,000,000,000 (that’s trillion), expect him to touch on his proposal to cut the grocery tax. That could draw a strong contrast to Biden and the national narrative. In the first debate, Youngkin ran a commercial on his tax cut idea. If we see that commercial and issue again tonight, that’s because it’s working.
Same thing goes for McAuliffe’s ad hitting Youngkin on vaccines - that ran during the first debate.
In the Washington Post poll, independents are breaking to Youngkin by 8 points whereas in November they went to Biden by 19. *PenToEnvelope* Biden won by 11 and carried Indies by 19 and Youngkin is now up by 8 with them…
In the University of Mary Washington poll, women led men in the voter universe 51-49 (very usual numbers); however, men led women in Likely Voters (LVs) 54-46. That’s something worth watching. Also in the UMW poll, when asked voters said they voted for Biden over Trump 49-42 (it was actually 54-44) but LVs said it was Biden 46-45.
UMW is the poll that had LVs breaking for Youngkin over McAuliffe 48-43, Biden underwater by 9, Governor Ralph Northam underwater by 6, and Republicans leading the House of Delegates ballot by 7.
Even if not entirely accurate, one can see a possible trend of over performance among rural men as key to a Youngkin victory along with suburban women concerned about cost of living issues mixed in with public safety/crime.
Tonight’s debate is going to be an hour long slugfest. Both candidates are going to hit harder than they did in the first debate. Why? Well, Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are good at it.
I think Youngkin had better counter punches in the Grundy debate, but McAuliffe has had time to review the tape and get better prepared for tonight. Youngkin had him on his heels early and will try to do it again tonight. Why? It worked the first time.
McAuliffe and Youngkin also have to drive up their opponent’s unfavorable numbers among base and persuadable voters. This is dissuasion versus the suppression tactics noted above.
Again, the strategy and tactics are not new - but there is a LOT riding on this debate not just in Virginia, but also in Congress.
As much as we would all like to see Virginia centric issues dominate tonight’s debate - like Democratic Senators Scott Surovell and Mamie Locke’s VERY interesting idea on solving higher education’s inequitable funding history described in their joint Richmond Times Dispatch op-ed here or even Senator Chap! Petersen’s recent op-ed in the Virginian Pilot on returning the Virginia budget surplus to Virginians.
Yes, Chap! is a Northern Virginia Democrat who wants to send revenue back to the citizens and that says the tax cut/cost of living issue is very much alive.
Are you curious why Petersen’s op-ed ran in the Virginia Beach paper and not the Washington Post which is far more proximate to his district in Fairfax? No? Well, I am. Maybe talk of tax cuts in the DC/NOVA suburbs market is counter narrative. I mean the man has been in the General Assembly since 2002, you’d think the WAPO would have run that op-ed.
End Digression.
We probably will see more national issues tonight since Virginia is a national bellwether and national money is pouring in. The moderator, Chuck Todd, is also national and the station is the National Broadcasting Corporation.
If you want to watch the Washington Nationals, they are playing in Colorado and game time is 8:40 EST - MASN should be broadcasting that game regionally, not nationally.
Anywho…
Tonight’s debate will also impact the life trajectory of many Virginia House incumbents and challengers.
That chamber is a Toss Up at this time. I ranked the top 15 races yesterday in a column sent to subscribers. I will drill down on those races more, but suffice it to say that Republicans are very happy with their prospects of taking back the House while Democrats are very worried.
Four years ago, Republicans did not see the Trump Tsunami that swept out 15 incumbents followed two years later by 11 more. Two weeks before the 2017 election, several Republicans said that they were up by 10 points only to lose by 10. TSUNAMI.
In 2013 Terry McAuliffe was elected over Ken Cuccinelli by 2.5 points and Republicans won 67 House seats that same night.
Anything can happen, but the pendulum is swinging back to the GOP this year and likely in 2022.
Trump is out of the White House, Biden’s numbers are underwater, and McAuliffe’s lead is just under 3 points.
So, yeah - a lot’s riding on tonight.
I’d go with no butter popcorn because if you’re watching you’re already an Election Nerd and you’ll be playing Debate Drinking Word Game, so you’ll be buttering up your glass, can, or bottle too much. You could easily drop your beverage and that’s the LAST thing you need. Plan ahead.
Drinking game words? Let’s see…
Trump. Texas abortion. Grocery Tax cuts. Lies. COVID. Vaccine Mandates. Right to Work. Election Integrity. Defund the police. Qualified Immunity. (Virginia? Not so much)
Might want to push back those early morning Zoom calls.
Definitely hydrate. Drink LOTS of water before and after the debate.
The likely outcome will be close to a tie with articles and tweets between the warring camps that will try to keep the base fires burning. Both sides will, again, declare victory (press releases are ready to send) and we’ll return to national events that will continue to drive this election - just this afternoon generals testified to Congress that they told President Biden to NOT withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
But there’s that really important endorsement vote tomorrow by the NOVA Chamber PAC and it could be the difference in this election.
Here’s some pre-debate music videos to crank up before kick off.
For all you HOKIES OUT THERE!!! GET UP!!!!