Trump in Virginia polls and Early Vote better than '16 and '20.

The Chainsmokers, The Weeknd, and Prince's When Doves Cry

One of #1 Rules to Stay Politically Sane is:

DO NOT FOLLOW POLLS, FOLLOW THE CANDIDATES AND THE MONEY.

NY POST - Trump, Harris virtually deadlocked in surprise battleground state Virginia: poll

THE HILL - Harris edges out Trump by 2 points in Virginia survey

No.

<You mean, Trump’s not going to win Virginia?>

Do you see him in Virginia?

<Well, didn’t he do a tele-town hall recently?>

Do you see him IN Virginia?

<But Harris is running ads in the DC area!>

Donors. DC Media. Is Trump running ads here? Is J.D. Vance campaigning here?

<Well, no. But…>

Just stop. It’s not happening. It WAS happening against Joe Biden, but it’s not anymore.

Here’s the Real Clear Politics average of Virginia:

Virginia academic polls have a 2.5 point lead for Harris which is inside the Margin of Error (MOE). If this race was inside the MOE, you’d see millions of dollars flooding the air waves.

<So those polls are wrong?>

Maybe. Probably. The key is that both campaigns polling disagree with them.

Outside Virginia polling operations have a 7 point lead for Harris over Trump.

Averaged together it’s 5.2 which looks a lot like the outcome of 2016 or 49.4 to 44.2:

Graphics from VPAP.org

2016 Virginia:

Which is actually kind of good news for Trump nationally.

<Why?>

Trump might actually over perform his % of 44.4 in 2016 and 44.00 from 2020.

Here is 2020 Virginia:

In 2016, the campaigns of Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Evan McMullin were getting a lot more free and earned media resulting in just over 5% of the vote.

2024’s coverage of third party candidates will likely push Harris over 50% in Virginia, but could also move Trump up to the 46, maybe 47% range. Which is HUGE nationally.

Electoral college winners only need a plurality to garner all of the Electoral College votes.

Side Bar - states should require that the winner earn a majority of votes in order to win the entire Electoral College.

If it’s Winner Take All, shouldn’t the Winner be at least a Majority?

YES.

Electoral College supporters who want to preserve the system, should insist on majority winners.

Here are 2020’s less than majority states plus Nevada and Michigan with barely 50+.

(Biden on left, Trump on the right)

That’s 94 electoral votes without a majority winner.

Here is 2016’s:

Or 174 electoral votes without a majority winner.

Bottom line is this:

IF 2024 Donald Trump over performs 2016 and 2020 Trump in Virginia , which is right across the river from DC (Jan. 6th, federal workforce, heavy suburban antipathy for him etc...) it’s safe to assume that Trump will over perform other states that would stitch together another popular vote loss but Electoral College win.

The race is close. A total toss up. But more like 2016 than 2020.

If you really want to see where the race stands versus diving into EVERY poll that comes out, just follow the candidates and the money.

That tells you everything you need to know.

Example:

Doug Emhoff, VPs’ husband, campaigned in Virginia this week. But he wasn’t in suburban Henrico or Chesterfield counties.

He was in liberal, college town Charlottesville which went 86% for Joe Biden in 2020.

That indicates softness in the college aged vote. It’s a tell.

And a good one for Trump.

Another good tell for Trump: Early Voting in Republican districts is leading Democratic districts.

CDs 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 are Republican.

VPAP again knocking it out of the park on visuals:

We’ll discuss all the Virginia polling and the early 2025 Gubernatorial polling today at Noon.

Click here:

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85392248381

2016 #1 song at election time:

2020’s #1 Song:

I’ll take 1984’s #1 When Doves Cry: