Tuesday's Trump Tide Test

Big elections today in Georgia and Virginia will show impact of Trump NOT being on the ballot. Lessons from Oklahoma.

On October 28th, 2000 I attended a football game that matched the #1 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers playing at the #3 ranked Oklahoma Sooners.

Talk about big time college football. It just doesn’t get any bigger or better than that.

With an 11am kick off, the day and tailgate started very early. Luckily, our spot was less than 100 yards from the stadium.

Around 10am my gracious host, Steve Raupe of the Oklahoma Raupes, said, “Finish your beer, pard. We gotta go.”

Puzzled I replied, “Where?”

“To the game. We gotta go. Hurry up.”

“But it starts in an hour and the stadium is RIGHT THERE”, I said pointing and still puzzled.

Growing up attending UVA football games, tailgates are dissembled about 10-15 minutes before kick off with several folks deciding at the last minute to wait until halftime since there was plenty of bourbon and ham biscuits without a chaperone.

As the guest, I naturally relented hoping and expecting that the concession stands would reward my early arrival with even more beer and short lines.

I was wrong.

I was also amazed at what I saw when I entered Memorial Stadium. Not only were we an hour early for kick off, we were also LATE for the entire spectacle that is Big Time College Football in Norman, Oklahoma.

The stadium was completely full an hour before the kickoff.

I felt like Dorothy sans Toto landing in Oz. “Where am I?”

I said to my host as we arrived at our seat numbers where would stand for the entire game, “Damn. You people are serious about your football.”

Steve’s beaming pride was brighter than the sun that day and deservedly so.

The booming Sooners put on a dazzling display of love of state, country, and team. Songs and chants tightly scripted moved the morning to kick off.

Boomer Sooner indeed.

I loved every minute of it.

Oklahomans have a wonderful “zest for living” and you would too if for several months a year you could come home to…well…no home.

You think the South is hot and humid? It is and we adjust a dial in the house for that.

Try living in Tornado Alley and not knowing if your house will be there at the end of the day.

Culturally, they tend to live (I think) more in the moment that most.

This moment, however, was their chance to knock off #1 Nebraska, a bitter rival.

Nebraska showed early why they were ranked #1. Their first two drives went right down the field and scored touchdowns directly in front of where our “seats” were.

Host and guest gave each other the “Uh oh” look just six minutes into the game down 14-0.

Undeterred, the Sooners flipped the script in the second quarter and ripped off 24 unanswered points on the way to a 31-14 victory that would eventually be topped off by a national championship.

Those Boomer Sooner chants might have altered - literally - my family DNA.

It’s that loud. Reminder - Oklahoma City’s NBA arena is nicknamed Loud City.

LOUD.

Needless to say, the crowd got louder as the game went on until the final horn just beat the frenzied mob storming the field.

IT. WAS. GLORIOUS.

What happened next was not seen by the TV viewers at home and the reason for this story.

It was also early. Like 2pm.

So, we stayed to watch the party mob turn victory into action setting their sights on the goal posts.

That’s when IT happened.

(The lesson for today’s important elections and this story)

IT was the Voice.

The Voice that came over the stadium speakers.

The PA announcer declared, "Please get away from the goalpost, for your own safety. Anyone caught trying to take down the goalpost will be prosecuted."

Nothing. The mob continued.

Yup. Those trophies came down and were held aloft as they were paraded around inside the stadium.

The Voice waited until the goal posts were down and then captured the reality with a single question of welcome curiosity.

The PA announcer asked:

Well, what are you going to do now?

What the PA announcer saw from above was that the mob could not leave the stadium with the trophy. There was no way out if they wanted to continue to carry the goal posts.

Today, America will have its first elections in the post Donald Trump era and the question tonight will be asked :

Well, what are WE going to do now?

Special elections are just that - special. A gut check.

Ask any pollster what they think will happen tonight and they will bet with their hearts while they hedge with their heads. Meaning, they might bet the outcome but it won’t be a heavy bet.

The Georgia Senate races are polling at a tie.

In the 2014 Senate race, Republican David Perdue beat Democrat Michelle Nunn 53-45.

In 2016’s race, Republican Johnny Isakson beat Democrat Jim Barksdale 55-41 on the same day Donald Trump beat Hillary Rodham Clinton 51-46.

IF the GOP happens to sweep The Peach State tonight, it is a seriously bad omen for the Democrats for 2022 and 2024 as the country will return to Trump Status Quo Ante or 2015. Democrats just barely won the majority in the U.S. House in November losing seats while defeating Donald Trump in the popular vote by 7 million.

IF the Democrats happen to sweep, there will be a lot of swing district Democrats who are going to take really bad votes in the 117th Congress and Joe Biden’s much ballyhooed centrist approach to governing will be tested early, often, and relentlessly heading into a potential rip tide of GOP victories in 2022. But for the night, Democrats will be overjoyed.

IF there is a split? Well, just how 2020 would that be? Answer - Very.

In reviewing the Georgia election numbers from 2016 to 2020, two stood out.

Clinton’s raw vote in 2016 was 1.8 million.

Joe Biden’s raw vote in 2020 was 2.473 million. That is an increase of 37%.

Trump’s vote increase from 2016 to 2020 was 17% from 2.068 million to 2.461 million.

With all the attention in Georgia and Washington these days, Virginia also has two House of Delegates special elections today that will show just how much Rip is in the post Trump Tide for Democrats.

Pay close attention to House District 2 between Democrat Candi King and Republican Heather Mitchell. Before Trump, HD2 was a suburban toss up trending Democratic district that swung hard to the Democrats after the election of Donald Trump.

HD2 is now rated at a D+11 district and is a bellwether for the 2021 cycle as it comes the week before the General Assembly kickoff at noon next Wednesday.

So, get in your seats early for this one.

Tonight, some folks are going to tear down the goal posts but they too won’t be able to leave the stadium due to the closely divided Congress, new Biden administration, and the 2021 elections here in Virginia.

The people of the States United will then say over the loudest system, “Well, what are you going to do now?”