Virginia #14 Best State for Business? Housing Drags and Youngkin Above Water 53-35.
Summer of '92 hits Kriss Kross, Mariah Carey, Madonna, and Boys II Men
NO Virginia FREE Friday this week BUT we will be moving to Saturday morning this week - join us at 9am - BYOC - Bring Your Own Coffee and CLICK HERE!
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“In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” - George Orwell.
If you read one article this week make it this one from Axios - The Democratic electorate’s seismic shift. Just about every presentation I have given over the last 6 or 7 year begins with a statement or slide that says we are living in a historic political realignment and it’s global. From the article:
Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Why it matters: We're seeing a political realignment in real time.
Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.
Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.
Briefly returning to last week’s rant about CNBC’s Top States for Business in which Virginia was ranked #3 and the State of Washington was ranked #2 overall. Chief Executive magazine, on the other hand, has Virginia #14 and Washington #46. How can a state in one ranking be #2 and #46 in another? The answer is in who is polled. We’ve discussed this before - there is a difference in polling and modeling. CNBC polls state economic development professionals (sales) and Chief Executive asks 650+ business executives (deciders) what state is the best for business. Final rankings in 2021/22 College Football? Alabama at #2 while Mississippi State is at #46.
Top Ten CNBC states? North Carolina - Washington - Virginia - Colorado - Texas - Tennessee - Nebraska - Utah - Minnesota - Georgia
Top Ten per Chief Executive? Texas - Florida - Tennessee - Arizona - North Carolina - Indiana - Nevada - South Dakota - Utah.
BOLD are in both.
What’s #1 state for business ? Usually the one where most of your customers are.
One drag on Virginia’s economy is housing costs. Look at the dramatic changes in just six years. Good article from VPM. Great graphic makes the point.
4. Morning Consult has a very cool article with their polling of all 50 governors. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is 18 points above water 53-35 approve vs. disapprove. Small wonder he is being considered for the national GOP ticket in 2024. Good Axios column here - Youngkin presidential buzz grows louder. With Youngkin’s resources and network, he can put together a credible political operation overseen by top pros in the business while he governs the Commonwealth. That’s pretty much what the private equity business model is based on. Work on one turnaround and invest in another one with appropriate due diligence managed to specific goals with a LOT of data for decision making. Today’s technology allows politicians to be in many places at the same time - social media, cable news, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Google Meet.
5. Donald Trump is seeing his fundraising slowing up and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis closing in on the former president in another state poll - this time it’s Michigan where Trump lead is only 5 points. How many times do you think DeSantis physically has been to Michigan? Among “classic Republicans” DeSantis leads Michigan Republicans over Trump by 20 points - 53-33. The cultural/political realignment is also within the two main parties.
6. Given Trump’s laser focus on his brand, polling, and fundraising, betting money should be placed on a sooner rather than later announcement of his 2024 campaign for re-election. He really can’t afford much more slippage in his position. Look for a post Labor Day launch - WAPO article on that time frame.
7. A year from now, both parties will have presidential candidate debates broadcast on their respective cable news outlets. Those will have a big impact on the 2023 Virginia General Assembly races. House and Senate are both up. I am previewing every contested nomination for Paid Subscribers. Four races have been analyzed to date.
So…
8. Speaking of the 2024 presidential cycle, there is a significant and well funded effort underway to get a third party candidate on all 50 state ballots. Reminds of the 1992 Ross Perot effort but with more attention being paid to an organization than to a specific candidate. Summer of ‘92 #1 hits were “Jump” - Kris Kross, “I’ll Be There” - Mariah Carey, “This Used to Be My Playground” - Madonna, “End of the Road” - Boyz II Men. They bring not only nostalgia but hilarious irony and a good playlist for third party rallies.
9. Fun headline here - ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks
Managers of environmental, social and governance funds are starting to shift a larger portion of their assets to oil and gas producers, especially in Europe.
Nothing like a pending recession to get folks to…FOCUS. Hey…didn’t 1991/92 have a recession? hmmm….
10. Last week, I posted this graphic from More in Common. It led to a robust conversation on the Virginia FREE Fridays Zoom with commentary going back to how was the question asked. Well, it’s in the graphic. “Please tell us how much you agree or disagree with the following statement - I am proud to be an American.”
Another graphic from Gallup shows the trend line of pride in being American.
Finally - also from More in Common - (Highly recommend a long explore there) so What DO Americans want? Well…
Remember, in the end politics is about the future and giving people what they want.
Hey how about that summer of 1992 playlist of #1s?
2024 is to 1992 as 1992 was to 1960. Just in case you weren't feeling old enough.