Virginia 2023 Election Preview -Voting Starts in a Week
The Clash, Rolling Stones, and Adele
Voting begins a week from today in the 2023 Virginia elections.
Here’s an overview:
Mood of the country - 64% Wrong Track or Net -39.2%.
Two years ago, it was 61% and a Net of -31.7
Today the mood is 8.5 points WORSE when Republicans swept the statewide offices of Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General and regained control of the House of Delegates.
President Joe Biden is badly underwater by over 12 points.
Two years ago? He was at 4.6
Again, 8 points worse for Democrats.
Yes, inflation is coming down but it’s up almost 4% in August which is ON TOP of the previous increases. Note the recent uptick in this chart.
Politics is about the FUTURE. The future outlook among American business leaders? Looking down.
Gas prices are a daily mood check. Drivers see the numbers and know whether they are winning or losing - every day and every drive. It just gnaws at them.
While better than last summer…
Gas prices have jumped over the last six months.
Looking at 9 House and 5 Senate districts in Virginia that are in play this fall, Republicans are in a better place than when they won two years ago. In the meantime, Roe v. Wade was repealed.
VPAP has 14 out of 140 districts that they call “Close.” That’s just 10% of the General Assembly.
Here are the House of Delegates districts by number, Open or Current Incumbent, and 2021 winning performance of Glenn Youngkin or Terry McAuliffe in that district.
Note BOLD districts of HD57 and SD16
21 - OPEN - Youngkin +3.4
22 - OPEN - Youngkin +7
57 - OPEN - Youngkin +2.9
58 - Willett (D) - McAuliffe + 4.8
65 - OPEN - Youngkin +2.9 (former Delegate Joshua Cole is Democratic nominee)
75 - Coyner (R) - Youngkin +8.1
82 - Taylor (R) - Youngkin +2.1
89 - OPEN - Youngkin +7.5
97 - Greenhalgh (R) - Youngkin 2.2
Of the Top Nine House races, just ONE was carried by Terry McAuliffe and the national/narrative structure of these districts is WORSE than two years ago for Democrats.
Senate Races
16 - Dunnavant (R) vs Del. VanValkenburg (D) - McAuliffe +6.4
17 - OPEN - Youngkin +5.2 [Delegate Brewer (R) vs Delegate Jenkins (D)]
24 - OPEN - Mason (D) - Youngkin +3.4
27 - OPEN - Youngkin +8.5 [Delegate Durant (R)]
31 - OPEN - Youngkin +0.6
Of the Top Five Senate races, just ONE was carried by Terry McAuliffe.
The Bold Districts are in Western Henrico where recent headlines were made in the HD 57 which should advantage even more the Republicans. It could also harm the Democratic nominee in SD 16, Schuyler VanValkenburg.
As I have noted in many columns, Virginia is the ultimate American political bellwether. We are Election Nerd Disneyland.
The nation will see whether inflation, abortion, and a potential shutdown of the federal government determine the outcome.
As of today - Advantage Republicans but…Roe looms and more so in suburban swing districts.
No Zoom today!
I am in London which is not how my week was originally scheduled.