Why Trump and the GOP Won - Environment and Candidate Quality

The Who and Al Green - videos for each party

In every election, there are Three Big Basics:

1. Environment

2. Candidate Quality

3. Money

If you are playing Politics - the Board Game while watching The Garbage that is cable news, please default back to those three elements.

I take nothing away from the impact any candidate, campaign or current event.

These are just the Big Basics.

For the 2024 presidential cycle here in America, here’s how those broke down:

1. Environment - Change trend continued:

   

   

   Environment? Advantage Republicans

   2025 - Virginia and New Jersey Early Advantage - Democrats

   2026 - House of Representatives and 1/3 Senate Early Advantage - Democrats

2. Candidate Quality

   It’s hard to quantify just how big of a political comeback for Donald Trump this actually was.

   

   Remember - he was the FIRST Republican after the 2022 midterms to announce his campaign for president. The date? November 15, 2022.

   What’s not often remembered is that THIRTEEN Republicans announced after Trump did. THIRTEEN. Including Larry Elder, Doug Burgum, and Asa Hutchinson. Still shocked they didn’t make it. Oh yeah - ZERO ideas.

   Heck, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis felt so good about his chances that he waited until May of 2023. Had DeSantis announced the day after Trump? hmm..

   That’s on top of all the legal problems he faced. Say what you will about Trump, America loves a comeback story. Trump delivered that.

   Senate Republicans also had MUCH better candidates than 2022.

   Now over to Team Blue. (hooray for reductive politics)

   Campaigns are won in the beginning, not the end. The first steps are the most important ones and President Joe Biden simply did not do what he said he would do.

   Biden won in 2020 by saying he would unite the country and be a transitional president. He did not govern that way. Worse still, the people around him didn't have the intestinal fortitude to call Bravo Sierra. Congressman Dean Phillips did and was cast out of the tribe. #ButTheMoney…#LordOfTheRings

   The entire WORLD saw his decline and only when it was unavoidably obvious during the debate debacle did his party reach for the political pillow.

   

   And then his replacement, VP Kamala Harris was installed as their nominee.

   Recall that her 2020 campaign for the Democratic nomination ended BEFORE 2020 began.

   Simply put, Kamala Harris is not a good national candidate. On that, both parties have agreed. How bad? She lost to Hitler.

   Had Biden said after the ‘22 Midterms, “I will stand aside for the good of the country and let democracy flourish by supporting an open Democratic nomination…” Now THAT is a legacy.

   Candidate Quality - Advantage Donald Trump and GOP Senate

   2025 - VA and NJ (likely Toss Up/Lean Democratic advantage)

   2026 - House and 1/3 Senate (same - Toss Up/Lean Dem)

3. Money

   Not even a contest. Democrats have a LOT of Ambassadors of Kwan out there.

   

   Again - give credit where credit is due. Democrats put their money where their mouths are.

   The totals are massive and don’t even come CLOSE to all the FREE and EARNED Media they got.

   Can you imagine if the mainstream and soon-to- be-bankrupt legacy media actually called the balls and strikes fairly?

   

   Money - Advantage Democrats

   2025 - Advantage Democrats

   2026 - Advantage Democrats

Final Elements Score:

GOP 2

Democrats 1

Areas to Seek Improvement - GOP Edition

If the Republicans are going to keep together and grow their new multi-racial, multi-class coalition.

1. Minimize Primary Challenges - they just cannot afford this dynamic to continue. Will they do this? Lord, no. Nominations are where upwards of 80% of elections are determined. This is symptomatic of a weak party structure. #ConsultantsNeedCandidates

2. Small Dollar Donors - while an area of improvement, the GOP lags woefully behind Democrats in this area. There are also a LOT of hands (pockets) in this world. Very inefficient.

3. Bad Media Strategy - what works for Trump will not work for anyone else. Period. He spent decades building name ID and a brand. Conservatives need a better ecosystem than what they have. There is zero coordination and now they will be on defense for four years. #MattGaetz

4. Early Polling - It’s not that polling is not accurate, it’s that it is BAD EARLY in cycles. This cuts off funding at critical times and in critical races because donors don’t see a path to victory if candidates are down almost ten points in the summer. $10MM more in both the US Senate races in Wisconsin and Michigan could have won those race BUT it was needed in late August/early September. Making up for it with bullshit “internals” doesn’t cut it either.

5. Spoiler Candidates - Pay CLOSE attention to this one as this is the growing Achilles’ heel for the Republicans. I will have a lot to say about this one soon but if we want a healthy Two Party System in America we need two healthy parties. Currently, neither party is healthy. Both are old, weak, and rotting.

   (sure, I’ll offer thoughts on what Democrats need to do, just not today)

   Look at these FOUR U.S. Senate races. Not one candidate got 50%. #SpoilerAlert

   

   

   

   

Videos for the two parties

Democrats: The Who - Who Are You?

Republicans: Al Green Let’s Stay Together