Red Wave? How about Purple Rain? 2022 Governor races - complicated and local, but candidate quality mattered.
Crime, economy, abortion, immigration, Donald Trump/democracy were all factors. Take your pick.
“Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to get through this thing called life” - Prince
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Leading into the 2022 Midterms, nearly everyone was hoping for or resigned to a Red Wave election in which Republicans would win the US House, the US Senate, and even New York governor.
It’s STILL Tuesday! What The Fahrvergnügen. Talk about a long night - and NOT the good kind. *wink*
This morning the House stands at 211-196 for the Republicans who currently lead in 11 of the remaining 28 districts yet to be called.
Florida will add four net new GOP House members while New York could add FIVE. #RedistrictingMatters. #GovernorsMatterToo
If the GOP adds 11 more to their current House total that would give them an overall net gain of 10 from 212 at the start of the election to 222 at swearing in time.
Interestingly, there are 17 Democratic House winners with LESS than 52% of the vote. Perhaps even more interesting is that those 17 are spread out over 15 states.
It. Was. *this*. Close to being a Red Wave.
The 2022 Midterms were one of the closest ever which makes almost every variable stand out even more as a critical factor in the outcomes. Of course, every variable has their champions who default to their issue or underlying assumptions about the election across the board.
The reality is - almost always - far more complicated and far more local.
This op-ed in The Hill, by Lauren Leader, entitled “It’s the women, stupid" highlights the governor’s race in Michigan and the impact of the abortion issue which was also on the actual ballot in the Wolverine State.
Not to throw water on her argument, but the title should have been “In Michigan - it might have been some of the women, stupid” because just to the south in Ohio, it wasn't. At all.
Actually, Michigan incumbent Governor Gretchen Witmer did only slightly better in her re-elect than in her election four years ago. So, was it really ALL about abortion pulling Witmer and her MI Democrats to victory?
Well, the Michigan congressional delegation had no net change. So…maybe not abortion? Or did abortion blunt the Red Wave? Redistricting? Only ONE Michigan race had a candidate winning with less than 52%. So, only one toss up there.
In Michigan, the pro-choice position on the ballot got 2.478MM votes to Witmer’s 2.427MM votes. In 2018, Witmer won with 2.266MM votes or 309k more than Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon got this year and Dixon got 98k more than the GOP nominee in 2018.
Maybe it’s…candidate quality + abortion minus crime + education? This year.
Let’s see…is that (CQ + A) - (c + E) = D +11 in Michigan?
Compare the 2022 gubernatorial races net win numbers to 2018.
Net Republican increase from ‘18 to ‘22 in bold italics.
Michigan D+11 vs D+ 10 = increase D +1
Ohio R +25 vs R +4 = increase R +21
Florida R +19 vs R + 0.4 = increase R +18.6
Texas R +11 vs R +13.3 = increase D +2.3
Oklahoma R +14 vs R +12.3 = increase R +1.7
Pennsylvania D +14 vs D +17 = increase R +3
Maryland D +24 vs R +11 D = increase D +35
New York D +5 vs D +23 = increase R +18
Georgia R +8 vs R +1.5 = increase R + 6.5 in rematch
Arizona TBD vs R +14 = increase D +14 so far
New Mexico D +6 vs D +14 = increase R +8
If you can find a trend of abortion translating to a positive statewide impact for the governors’ who will sign the bills into law, good on ya. I just don’t see it.
New York? Crime.
Ohio, Florida, Georgia? Maybe competent, likable governors who didn’t kowtow to Donald Trump?
Maryland - OBVIOUSLY candidate change and candidate quality.
Arizona. Hmm. Interesting when compared to neighbor New Mexico. Yes, Governor Doug Ducey won in 2018 by 14 during a Trump midterm.
Like I said, it’s complicated and local; however, candidate quality is a really big factor.
Go crazy…pick your favorite. But 2022 was close to a Red Wave…perhaps it was…Purple Rain? (h/t Scott McGeary a.k.a Scotty McGoogle)
Yes…at the 2007 Super Bowl! Live in the rain.
“Electric word ‘life’ It means forever and that’s a mighty long time” - Prince
Studio version from the movie: