Truthing Turnout #JustMath

History is useful guide (from The Byrds Turn! Turn! Turn! to Lil Jon Turn Down for What)

Regardless of one’s thoughts about the historic 2024 election, let’s get some facts straight.

Upshot #1 - 2020’s election was not THAT much more than previous Republican re-elects and 2024’s slight dip in turnout consistent with Democratic re-elects.

Upshot #2 - it’s harder and harder to show 2020 was a stolen election because of the data.

Wikipedia chart of recent history on voting eligible population (VEP) in the US and turnout in presidential cycles since 1980.

2024 updated estimate below.

Big Note: how incumbent parties perform in re-elects.

VEP chosen to compare and contrast.

Okay.

1980 - Ronald Reagan wins. Bigly.

1984 - Reagan II - turnout up 1 point

1988 - George HW Bush - turnout DOWN 2.4

1992 - Bill Clinton wins three way - (GHWBush + Ross Perot) - turnout up 5.4

1996 - Clinton II - turnout DOWN 6.5

2000 - George W. Bush - turnout up 2.6

2004 - GWBush II - turnout UP 5.8

2008 - Barack Obama - challenge GOP third term - turnout up 1.5

2012 - Obama II - turnout DOWN 3.6

2016 - Donald Trump - turnout UP 1.2

2020 - Joe Biden - turnout up 6.6

2024 - Biden II - turnout DOWN

Key takeaways:

1. Re-elects for Republicans see HIGHER turnout

2. Re-elects for Democrats see LOWER turnout.

3. 2020 Trump re-elect turnout 6.6, Bush I and II’s re-elects of 5.4 and 5.8 respectively.

4. 2024 Biden re-elect TBD but down, Clinton II down 6.5, and Obama II down 3.6

Current Vote Totals

Donald Trump 75.115MM

Kamala Harris 71.819MM

Final Vote estimate from Nate Silver

Trump 78.5MM votes (49.9%)

Harris 76.2MM votes (48.4%)

Other 2.6MM votes (1.5%)

Total turnout 157.3MM votes 158.4MM in 2020

Trump margin +1.5%

Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.1%)